SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast to be 107.2 million tons, up 4.3 million tons from 2000/01. Global production is forecast down 5.3 million tons and is expected to remain below consumption for the third consecutive year. Global stocks are forecast down 19 million tons from last year to the lowest level since 1995/96.

In early December, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged $126/MT, down only $1 from last month. Global production is estimated up nearly 2 million tons from last month due to larger crops in Russia and Canada. Global consumption is forecast up .4 million tons while ending stocks are forecast up 3.7 million tons, in part, due to minor revisions of historical consumption in Iran, Algeria, and Saudi Arabia. World wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast identical to last month. Larger exports from Canada and the EU were countered by smaller U.S. exports. Imports by Morocco were lowered while the forecast for China’s imports was raised.

2001/2002 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• Canada up 500,000 tons to 16 million due to a larger estimated crop.

• EU up 500,000 tons to 12 million based on slightly more than expected licenses.

• United States down 1 million tons to 27.5 million due to the lagging pace of sales.

Selected Importers

• China up 500,000 tons to 1.5 million based on WTO accession.

• Morocco down 200,000 tons to 2.8 million based on increased production.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003