SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Global trade for 2001 is estimated at approximately 23.4 million tons but is forecast to drop nearly 850,000 tons to 22.6 million in 2002. While consumption is expected to continue to grow and production is estimated to decline year-to-year, ending stocks are expected to fall almost 12 million tons in 2002, which is roughly half of total global trade.

Price quotes out of Thailand and Vietnam are up. Over the past five weeks, Thai export price quotes for 100B have strengthened climbing from a low of $175 per ton to a high of $184; Viet 5% export price quotes have also risen substantially due to diminished exportable supplies climbing from a low of $186 per ton to a high of $200. Quotes for Paki 15/20% have softened slightly from last month’s high of $159 per ton, ranging from a low of $149 per ton to a high of $153.

Export price quotes for U.S. #2/4 have fallen further this month and are currently at $209 per ton (FAS), US Gulf sacked. Price quotes for high quality medium grain have not changed month-to-month to $265 per ton ex-spout Sacramento port.

2002 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• Pakistan exports down 400,000 tons to 1.5 million due to an expected decrease in production.

2001 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• Australia exports down 25,000 tons to 575,000 due to slow pace to date.

• Pakistan up 200,000 tons to 2.1 million based on large shipments to neighboring countries.

• Thailand up 200,000 tons to 7.2 million based on pace to date, including large shipments to Nigeria and Senegal.

Selected Importers

• China imports down 75,000 tons to 225,000 based on a slow pace to date.

• Nigeria up 200,000 tons to a record estimate of 1.8 million based on stepped-up purchases as prices are more favorable than that of traditional foods such as casava and yams. Nigeria is expected to be this year’s largest importer.

• Russia down 125,000 tons to 225,000 tons based on a slow pace to date.

• Saudi Arabia down 50,000 tons to 900,000 based on a slow pace to date.

• Senegal up 100,000 tons to 850,000 base on increased demand driven by low international prices.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003