SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND
OUTLOOK
World coarse grain trade for
2001/02 is projected down 3.6 million tons from the previous year
to 100.3 million. Global consumption is expected to continue to
outpace production and carryout stocks are forecast to fall 20
million tons. US corn, China corn, and EU barley are forecast to
account for nearly two-thirds of world coarse grain stocks.
Global corn trade is projected
down more than 2 million tons from a year earlier at 73.5
million. US exports are projected to increase 3.8 million tons
from the 2000/01 levels, mostly because of reduced competition.
Smaller US carryout stocks will result from a smaller crop,
larger domestic use and exports. World barley trade has shifted
from EU and Canada to Australia, FSU and Eastern European
countries with abundant and favorably priced supplies.
2001/02 Trade
Changes
Selected Exporters
- Argentina corn down
1.5 million tons to 8.5 million because of prevented
plantings due to prolonged rains.
- Brazil corn up 1.5
million tons to 3.8 million due to continued strong
exports from the record 2000/01 crop.
- China corn down 1
million tons to 3 million based on reports of canceled
sales.
- Hungary corn up
300,000 to 1.8 million tons due to largest crop in a
decade.
- Australia sorghum up
200,000 tons to 750,000 based on a larger expected crop.
Selected Importers
- Canada corn down
700,000 tons to 2.3 million based on a larger expected
crop.
- China corn up 800,000
tons to 1 million based on recent sales associated with
WTO and subsequent easier access to world markets.
- South Korea corn down
300,000 tons to 6.7 million due to increased substitution
of feed wheat for corn.
- Taiwan corn down
300,000 tons to 4.7 million due to expected increases in
meat imports with the WTO accession.
- Japan sorghum up
200,000 to 2.2 million tons because of increased export
availability.
2000/01 Trade Changes
Selected Exporters
- United States corn
down 320,000 tons to 48.2 million tons based on final
export figures.
- Argentina corn up
400,000 tons due to a strong shipment pace in recent
months.
- Canada barley down
144,000 tons to 2 million based on final export figures.
- Russia barley up
131,000 tons to 1 million based on final export figures.
- Canada oats up
100,000 tons to 1.4 million based on final export numbers
which show robust shipments to the United States.
Download the coarse grains tables in:
Adobe Acrobat Format
Lotus Spreadsheet Format
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003
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