SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast to be 107.2 million tons, up 4.4 million tons from 2000/01. Global production is forecast down 7 million tons and is expected to remain below consumption for the third consecutive year. Global stocks are forecast to fall more than 20 million tons from last year to the lowest level since 1995/96.

In early November, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged $127/MT, up $6 from last month. Global production is estimated up nearly 4 million tons from last month as larger harvests in Australia, Kazakhstan, and Russia are only partially offset by a smaller Argentine crop. Global consumption is forecast up 1.6 million tons, and ending stocks are forecast up 4 million tons. World wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast slightly higher this month. Larger exports from Australia are largely offset by less from Argentina and the EU while fewer imports from Algeria are countered by more from the EU and Tunisia.

2001/2002 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• Argentina down 500,000 tons to 12 million based on reduced crop prospects.

• Australia up 1.5 million tons to 17.5 million due to a larger expected crop and large carry-in stocks.

• EU down 500,000 tons to 11.5 million based on the Commission’s unwillingness to approve the export subsidies necessary to bridge the gap between relatively high domestic prices and lower-priced competitive supplies.

Selected Importers

• Algeria down 500,000 tons to 4.5 million based on an upward revision to the final crop.

• Tunisia up 300,000 to 1.5 million due to evidence of a smaller than expected harvest.

• EU up 500,000 tons to 5.5 million based on relatively high domestic prices, lower import duties, and abundant cheap supplies from Eastern Europe and the FSU.

Download the wheat tables in:

Adobe Acrobat Format

Lotus Spreadsheet Format

Return to Table of Contents

Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003