WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast to be 107.2 million tons, up 4.4 million tons from 2000/01. Global production is forecast down 7 million tons and is expected to remain below consumption for the third consecutive year. Global stocks are forecast to fall more than 20 million tons from last year to the lowest level since 1995/96.
In early November, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged $127/MT, up $6 from last month. Global production is estimated up nearly 4 million tons from last month as larger harvests in Australia, Kazakhstan, and Russia are only partially offset by a smaller Argentine crop. Global consumption is forecast up 1.6 million tons, and ending stocks are forecast up 4 million tons. World wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast slightly higher this month. Larger exports from Australia are largely offset by less from Argentina and the EU while fewer imports from Algeria are countered by more from the EU and Tunisia.
2001/2002 Trade Changes
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