SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD
RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Global trade for 2002 is
projected at 23 million tons, up 550,000 tons from last
month’s forecast and virtually unchanged from 2001's revised
estimate. With consumption growth expected to outpace production,
ending stocks are projected to drop 11 million tons to 126
million. China accounts for the bulk of the expected decline in
global ending stocks.
Quotes from Bangkok reports are
flat, but higher from Vietnam. Over the past four weeks, Thai
export price quotes for 100B have averaged $174 per ton, with a
high of $175 and a low of $173; Viet 5% export price quotes have
averaged $181 per ton, with a high of $186 and a low of $176.
Quotes for Paki 15/20% have fallen from last month’s average
of $155 per ton to $153 per ton.
Export price quotes for U.S. #2/4
have fallen again this month and are currently at $213 per ton
(FAS), US Gulf sacked. Price quotes for high quality medium grain
have increased this month $265 per ton ex-spout Sacramento port.
2002 Trade Changes
Selected Exporters
- Burma exports up
150,000 tons to 500,000 based on aggressive pricing by
the Myanma Produce Trading Agency and increased trade
opportunities related to uncertainties about Pakistan
exports.
- India up 500,000 tons
to 1.5 million due to aggressive government sales to
exporters combined with stronger anticipated West African
demand for parboiled rice.
- Pakistan down 100,000
tons to 1.9 million based on logistical problems and
higher war risk premiums related to the unstable
situation in neighboring Afghanistan.
- Thailand up 300,000
tons to 7 million due to larger-than-anticipated forward
sales and good harvest prospects.
- Vietnam down 300,000
tons to 4.0 million due to a tighter-than-expected stock
situation and limited sales in deferred positions.
Selected Importers
- Cote d’Ivoire
imports up 100,000 tons to 650,000 because of
anticipated flat production and increasing consumption.
- Nigeria up 300,000
tons to 1.2 million due to relatively low import prices
and increasing demand for parboiled rice.
- Philippines up
100,000 tons to 800,000 based on steady import pace, flat
production prospects, and increasing consumption.
- Senegal up 150,000
tons to 750,000 due to larger anticipated demand for
relatively low priced broken rice.
2001 Trade Changes
Selected Exporters
- India exports up
600,000 tons to 1.6 million due to a surge in recent
months of mostly parboiled rice to Nigeria and other
African countries as a result of aggressive government
sales to exporters.
- Pakistan down 100,000
tons to 1.9 million based on logistical constraints
related to the unstable situation in neighboring
Afghanistan.
- Thailand up 300,000
tons to 7 million due to strong export pace and slightly
less competition from other major exporters.
- Vietnam down 200,000
tons to 3.6 million due to logistical problems related to
recent flooding, lower than expected availability of high
quality stocks, and higher internal prices which have
hampered international competitiveness.
Selected Importers
- Iran imports down
200,000 tons to 800,000 based on slow import pace.
- Nigeria up 600,000
tons to 1.6 million due to unexpectedly large imports of
parboiled rice to date.
- Philippines up
100,000 tons to 950,000 based on stronger than
anticipated import pace.
- Senegal up 100,000
tons to 750,000 due to larger than expected imports of
broken rice.
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003
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