SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World coarse grain trade for 2001/02 is projected down 3 million tons from the previous year to 100.7 million. Global consumption is expected to continue to outpace production and carryout stocks are forecast to fall 23 million tons. US corn, China corn, and EU barley are forecast to comprise nearly two-thirds of world coarse grain stocks.

Global corn trade is projected to be down marginally from a year earlier at 74 million tons. US exports are projected to increase 3.5 million tons from the 2000/01 levels, mostly because of reduced competition. Smaller US carryout stocks will result from a smaller crop and larger exports. World barley trade has shifted from the EU and Canada to Australia, the FSU and Eastern Europe with abundant and favorably priced supplies.

2001/02 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• Argentina corn down 1 million tons to 10 million because of reduced plantings as a result of incessant rainfall.

• Brazil corn up 1 million tons to 2.3 million due to continued exports from the record 2000/01 crop.

• Australia barley up 600,000 tons to 4.5 million due to higher crop prospects.

• EU barley down 500,000 tons to 5 million because of the Commission’s unwillingness to grant export subsidies in the face of high internal grain market prices.

Selected Importers

• Egypt corn up 400,000 tons to 5.5 million based on continuing strong food demand.

• Taiwan corn up 200,000 to 5 million due to high feed demand.

• Iran barley up 100,000 tons to 800,000 due to expected strong feed demand.

2000/01 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• United States corn up 500,000 tons to 48.5 million due to greater purchases by small importers.

• Brazil corn down 300,000 to 3.7 million tons as a result of slowing late-season shipment pace.

• China corn up 275,000 tons to almost 7.3 million due to large late season shipments to South Korea and Malaysia.

• South Africa corn down 500,000 tons to 1.1 million because of slower shipments.

• Russia barley up 100,000 tons to 900,000 due to strong late-season export pace.

• Ukraine barley up 200,000 tons to 1.2 million based on the strong pace of shipments late in the year.

• Argentina sorghum down 200,000 tons to 700,000 based on weak shipment pace.

• Australia sorghum up 100,000 to 900,000 tons due to a larger crop and higher than anticipated shipments to Japan.

Selected Importers

• Canada corn up 200,000 tons to 2.5 million because of strong livestock demand and sharply lower coarse grain production.

• Mexico sorghum up 250,000 tons to almost 5 million based on continued strong feed demand and limited corn import licenses granted to feed mills.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003