WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast to be 106.7 million tons, up 3.8 million tons from 2000/01. Global production is forecast down 8 million tons and is expected to remain below consumption for the third consecutive year. Global stocks are forecast to fall an estimated 23 million tons from last year to their lowest level in 13 years.
In early October export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged $121/MT, down $6 from last month. Expected global production is largely unchanged from last month as increases in Russia and Ukraine more than offset smaller crops in Argentina, Canada, the EU, and the United States. Global consumption is forecast down slightly while ending stocks are estimated up 2 million tons. World wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast 500,000 tons lower than last month.
Exports by the EU are forecast to fall to 12 million tons which would be the lowest level in 25 years. Internal EU market prices are well above world market prices because of crop shortfalls and producers holding supplies off the market. Consequently, the Commission has been unwilling to grant export subsidies for fear of further boosting domestic prices. However, without subsidies and with a stronger Euro, EU wheat cannot compete with the cheap supplies from Eastern Europe and the FSU.
2001/2002 Trade Changes
2000/2001 Trade Changes
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