SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND
OUTLOOK
World coarse grain trade for
2001/02 is projected down 2.6 million tons from the previous year
to nearly 100.5 million tons. Global consumption is expected to
continue to outpace production and carryout stocks are forecast
to fall 29 million tons. US corn, China corn, and EU barley are
forecast to comprise nearly two-thirds of world coarse grain
stocks.
Global corn trade is projected to
be down marginally from a year earlier at 74 million tons. US
exports are projected to increase 4 million tons from 2000/01
levels, mostly because of reduced competition. A large drop in US
carryout stock levels will result from a smaller crop and larger
exports. World barley trade has shifted from traditional major
exporters (EU and Canada) to FSU and Eastern European countries
with unusually abundant and cheap supplies.
2001/02 Trade
Changes
Selected Exporters
- United States corn up
1 million tons to 52 million due to reduced competition
and increased global trade.
- Argentina corn down
500,000 tons to 11 million because of a reduction in
expected production.
- Russia and Ukraine
barley up 700,000 tons and 500,000 tons respectively
because of larger crops.
- EU barley down 1
million tons in the face of strong competition and the
Commission’s unwillingness to grant export subsidies
for fear of boosting internal grain market prices.
- Canada oats and barley down
200,000 tons each to 900,000 and 1 million tons
respectively due to prospects for sharply smaller crops.
- Ukraine rye up
200,000 tons to 350,000 based on an increase in
production.
Selected Importers
- Canada corn up
500,000 tons to 3 million due to smaller corn and barley
crops.
- Taiwan corn down
300,000 tons to 4.8 million because of falling
consumption patterns.
- United States oats
down 200,000 tons to 1.3 million based on tighter
exportable supplies from Canada.
2000/01 Trade Changes
Selected Exporters
- United States corn up
500,000 tons to 48 million based on continuing strong
sales and shipment pace to date.
- Brazil corn up
300,000 tons to 4 million based on strong shipment pace.
Selected Importers
- Israel corn up
150,000 tons to 850,000 due to a strong purchase pace to
date.
- Morocco corn up
150,000 tons to 900,000 due to a brisk purchase pace.
- Romania corn up
225,000 tons to 375,000 due to an active purchase tempo.
- Taiwan corn down
300,000 tons to 4.8 million as a result of a sluggish
purchase pace to date.
- Thailand corn down
150,000 tons to 50,000 due to higher production and
slower purchase pace.
Download the coarse grains tables in:
Adobe Acrobat Format
Lotus Spreadsheet Format
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003
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