SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast to be 107.2 million tons, up 4.3 million tons from 2000/01. Global production is forecast to expand as increases in Eastern Europe, FSU, and Argentina more than offset smaller crops in Australia, Canada, EU, and Turkey. Consumption is expected to remain well above production for the third consecutive year leading global stocks to fall an estimated 24 million tons to the lowest level since1988/89.

In early September, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged $127/MT, up only $2 from last month as tightening exportable supplies in some major countries were countered by additional supplies from non-traditional exporters and lagging global import demand. Global production increased by more than three million tons compared to last month as production estimates in Eastern Europe, FSU, and Syria more than offset tighter crop prospects in Australia, Canada, EU and Turkey. Global consumption is forecast up nearly 1 million tons and ending stocks are estimated up more than 3 million tons. World wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast 1 million tons higher than last month as higher expected exports from Russia, Ukraine, and Pakistan, more than offset lower exports from Australia, Canada, and Turkey.

2001/2002 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• Australia down 500,000 tons to 16 million due to smaller crop prospects.

• Canada down 500,000 tons to 16 million as a result of a smaller crop and tighter exportable supplies.

• Russia up 500,00 tons to 1.5 million based on better-than-expected crops.

• Turkey down 300,000 tons to 200,000 tons because of a lower crop.

• Ukraine up 1 million tons to 3.5 million in response to a larger crop.

Selected Importers

• Brazil down 500,000 tons to 6.5 million with prospects for a larger crop.

• South Korea up 500,000 tons to 4.3 million based on higher expected feed wheat consumption.

• Nigeria up 600,000 tons to 2.3 million because of continued strong demand.

• Turkey up 200,000 tons to 1.2 million due to a smaller crop.

2000/2001 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• Argentina up 200,000 tons to 11.2 million due to higher than expected export shipments to date.

• Australia and Canada have been adjusted to reflect more complete official data.

• Turkey up 200,000 tons to 1.5 million due to increased sales at the end of the year.

Selected Importers

• Indonesia up 200,000 tons to 3.9 million as a result of strong imports late in the year.

• Nigeria up 600,000 tons to 2.2 million because of large, late season imports.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003