WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast to be 107.2 million tons, up 4.3 million tons from 2000/01. Global production is forecast to expand as increases in Eastern Europe, FSU, and Argentina more than offset smaller crops in Australia, Canada, EU, and Turkey. Consumption is expected to remain well above production for the third consecutive year leading global stocks to fall an estimated 24 million tons to the lowest level since1988/89.
In early September, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged $127/MT, up only $2 from last month as tightening exportable supplies in some major countries were countered by additional supplies from non-traditional exporters and lagging global import demand. Global production increased by more than three million tons compared to last month as production estimates in Eastern Europe, FSU, and Syria more than offset tighter crop prospects in Australia, Canada, EU and Turkey. Global consumption is forecast up nearly 1 million tons and ending stocks are estimated up more than 3 million tons. World wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast 1 million tons higher than last month as higher expected exports from Russia, Ukraine, and Pakistan, more than offset lower exports from Australia, Canada, and Turkey.
2001/2002 Trade Changes
2000/2001 Trade Changes
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