SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

International market conditions have not changed much over the past month as thin demand and large exportable supplies continue to pressure prices. Global trade for 2001 is down slightly from last month’s estimate at 22.2 million tons. While consumption continues to outpace production, ending stocks are expected to fall approximately 10 million tons in 2002.

In recent weeks, price quotes for high quality Viet rice have been on par with similar qualities from Thailand. Thai quotes have stabilized over the past four weeks due to consistent demand; Thai 100B export price quotes continue to average $176 per ton. However, quotes out of Vietnam have changed many times throughout the month for a variety of reasons - flooding in the Mekong Delta, tight supplies, and increased port loadings. Ultimately, export price quotes for Viet 5% have averaged $177 per ton.

With a projected record long grain harvest, price quotes for U.S. #2/4 have fallen to $237 per ton (FAS), US Gulf sacked. In contrast, in response to a smaller harvest, price quotes for high quality medium grain have jumped $40 per ton to $225 per ton ex-spout Sacramento port.

Trade Changes in 2002

Selected Exporters

• United States exports up 50,000 tons to 2.7 million based on projected lower prices.

• Burma up 100,000 tons to 350,000 based on competitive pricing and ample supplies to meet import demands in Africa and Bangladesh.

• Egypt up 125,000 tons to 650,000 based on a new government export subsidy program.

Trade Changes in 2001

Selected Exporters

• Egypt up 125,000 tons to 650,000 based on a new government export subsidy program.

• Burma exports up 100,000 tons to 450,000 based on competitive pricing and expanded export pace to Africa and Bangladesh.

• Egypt up 50,000 tons to 550,000 due to pace to date which is a result of a new government export subsidy program.

• Vietnam down 200,000 tons to 3.8 million based on a slowing export pace and recent reports of smaller sales from government and private traders.

Selected Importers

• Bangladesh imports up 175,000 tons to 475,000 due to stepped up import demand, particularly for competitively priced Burmese rice.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003