SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND
OUTLOOK
World coarse grain trade for
2001/02 is projected down 2.3 million tons from the previous year
to nearly 100 million tons. Global consumption is expected to
continue to outpace production and carryout stocks are forecast
to fall 25 million tons. US corn, China corn, and EU barley are
forecast to comprise nearly two-thirds of world coarse grain
stocks.
Global corn trade is projected to
be down marginally from a year earlier at 73.4 million tons. US
exports are projected to increase 3.5 million tons from 2000/01
levels, mostly because of reduced competition. A large drop in US
carryout stock levels will result from a smaller crop, expanded
use, and larger exports. The world barley market is shrinking
with falling demand expected from Eastern European and Mid
Eastern countries.
2001/02 Trade
Changes
Selected Exporters
- United States corn
down 500,000 tons to 51 million due to stronger
competition.
- China corn up 3
million tons to 4 million because of recent unexpected
sales.
- South Africa corn up
500,000 tons to 1.3 million based on anticipated
continued strong sales to other African nations and
Japan.
- Canada corn down
700,000 tons to 300,000 because of a much smaller crop.
- Romania corn down
200,000 tons to 800,000 based on a decrease in
production.
- EU barley down
500,000 tons to 6.5 million due to tighter supplies of
feed grains and strong domestic demand.
- Canada barley and
oats down 200,000
tons to 1.2 and 1.1 million respectively due to prospects
for smaller crops as a result of dryness in key producing
areas.
- Ukraine barley up
500,000 tons to 1.5 million due to a larger anticipated
crop.
- Russia barley up
100,000 tons to 800,000 due to higher crop prospects.
- United States sorghum
down 200,000 to 6.1 million tons due to increased
competition from Australia.
- Australia sorghum up
200,000 to 550,000 due to a projected increase in
production.
Selected Importers
- Canada corn up 1.2
million tons to 2.5 million because of the smaller crop
and an expected rise in feed use.
- Indonesia corn up
300,000 to 1.5 million tons due to a strengthening rupiah
which causes imports to be cheaper.
- Iran corn up 300,000
to 1 million supported by a projected rise in feed use.
- South Korea corn down
500,000 tons to 7 million replaced by cheaper feed
quality wheat imports.
- Saudi Arabia barley
up 300,000 tons to 4.5 million due to expected strong
feed demand.
- United States oats
down 200,000 tons to 1.5 million based on smaller
anticipated Canadian crop.
2000/01 Trade Changes
Selected Exporters
- United States corn up
1.5 million tons to 47.5 million based on recent strong
sales and shipment pace to date.
- Ukraine corn down
200,000 tons to 100,000 based on a weak export pace to
date.
- Turkey barley down
200,000 tons to 200,000 due to lagging import pace.
- Russia barley up
200,000 tons to 600,000 due to strong export pace to
date.
- Canada barley up
100,000 tons to 2.1 million due to strong exports.
- Australia sorghum up
150,000 tons to 800,000 due to larger than expected
shipments to Japan.
Selected Importers
- Canada corn up
600,000 tons to 2.3 million because of tightening
domestic supply.
- Egypt corn up 300,000
tons to a record 5 million due to a thriving poultry
industry.
- Iran corn up 300,000
tons to 1 million based on unexpected shipments from
Brazil.
- North Korea corn up
250,000 tons to 650,000 due to China and U.S. food aid.
- South Korea corn up
500,000 tons to 8.5 million supported by a stronger than
expected purchase pace to date.
- Philippines corn down
200,000 tons to 400,000 due to a weak import pace to
date.
- Saudi Arabia barley
up 300,000 tons to 4.5 million based on purchases to
date.
- Jordan barley up
150,000 tons to 650,000 because of strong purchases to
date.
- Morocco barley down
100,000 tons to 600,000 due to weak import pace.
Download the coarse grains tables in:
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003
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