WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast to be 106.2 million tons, up 3.4 million tons from 2000/01. Global production is forecast down as smaller crops in the United States, Canada, EU, China, and South Asia more than offset increases in Eastern Europe, FSU, North Africa, and Argentina. Consumption is expected to remain well above production for the third consecutive year leading global stocks to fall an estimated 27 million tons from last year to their lowest level in 19 years.
In early August, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged $125/MT, up only $1 from last month as indications of tightening exportable supplies in some major countries were countered by prospects for additional exportable supplies from smaller exporters and lagging global import demand. Expected global production is largely unchanged from last month as reduced prospects in China, Canada, and the EU are countered by better prospects in Russia, Kazakstan, and Eastern Europe. Global consumption is forecast up nearly 2 million tons while ending stocks are estimated down more than 2 million tons. World wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast 1 million tons lower than last month as lower expected exports from Canada and the EU more than offset more exports from Kazakstan and Eastern Europe.
2001/2002 Trade Changes
2000/2001 Trade Changes
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