WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Bearish market conditions continue as low prices and scant importer demand constrain international trade. Global trade for 2001 is projected at approximately 22.3 million tons, down nearly 600,000 from the previous year, and the third consecutive year-to-year decline. As global production remains flat, global consumption continues to grow and is projected to drawdown global stocks nearly 10 million tons from the previous year.
Given the sluggishness of global imports, prices remain low. Thailands export price quotes seemed to strengthen through June and early July, but began to fall again in late July. A ten-week average shows that Thai 100B continues to remain around $176 per ton and has averaged $183 per ton over the past 12 months. Similar qualities of Viet rice have followed this trend until the past week when export quotes turned up. Over the past ten weeks, Viet 5% has averaged $156 per ton and $160 per ton over the past 12 months.
During the past four weeks price quotes adjusted for the slow international market and pulled price quotes for U.S. #2/4 down about $17 to $259 per ton (FAS), US Gulf sacked, while medium grain #1/4 California rice fell $5 to $185 per ton, ex-spout Sacramento port.
Trade Changes in 2001 and 2002
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