SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World coarse grain trade for 2001/02 is projected down 2.2 million tons from the previous year to 98.5 million tons. Global consumption is expected to continue to outpace production and carryout stocks are forecast to fall more than 33.5 million tons. US corn, China corn, and EU barley are forecast to comprise nearly two-thirds of world coarse grain stocks.

Global corn trade is projected to be down marginally from a year earlier at 71.6 million tons. US exports are projected to increase 5.5 million tons from 2000/01 levels, mostly because of reduced competition from drought-ridden China. A large drop in US carryout stock levels will result from a smaller crop, expanded use, and larger exports. The world barley market is shrinking with falling demand expected from North Africa and Mid Eastern countries.

THE CHANGING FACE OF THE GLOBAL CORN MARKET

The U.S. continues to dominate global corn trade as other suppliers ebb and flow. China’s exports continue to shrink, but Brazil has recently emerged as a short term exporter and Eastern Europe has recovered from drought. Even with competition from these exporters, the US market share is expected to increase nearly 9%.

2001/02 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• United States corn up 500,000 tons to 51.5 million due to expected continued strong demand and reduced competition.

• Argentina corn down 500,000 tons to 11.5 million because of lower area.

• China corn down 50 percent to 1 million tons based on continuing high domestic prices.

• Hungary corn up 1 million tons to 1.5 million and Romania corn up 500,000 tons to 1 million with larger exportable supplies.

• Brazil corn up 300,000 tons to 1.3 million based on anticipated continued strong sales.

• Canada barley down 300,000 tons to 1.4 million due to prospects for a smaller crop as a result of dryness in key producing areas.

• EU barley down 1 million tons to 7 million due to tighter supplies of feed grains and strong domestic demand.

Selected Importers

• Brazil corn up 300,000 tons to 500,000 because of a decrease in forecasted harvest area.

• Egypt corn up 200,000 tons to 5 million due to an expected increase in consumption.

• Russia corn up 100,000 tons to 200,000 tons because of anticipated strong demand for feed corn for the poultry sector.

• Algeria barley down 300,000 tons to 500,000 based on the continued shift to corn.

• Morocco barley down 100,000 tons to 700,000 in response to a larger crop.

• Saudi Arabia barley down 300,000 tons to 4.2 million due to continuing weak demand from smaller herds.

2000/01 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• United States corn up 1 million tons to 46 million based on recent strong sales and shipment pace to date.

• Argentina corn down 1 million tons to 12 million due to slowing sales.

• Brazil corn up 700,000 tons to 3.7 million because of a continuing strong export pace.

• EU barley down 1 million tons to 7 million due to reduced export licenses.

• United States sorghum up 300,000 tons to 6 million due to continuing strong sales to Mexico.

Selected Importers

• Russia corn up 50,000 tons to 150,000 supported by a strong demand for feed corn.

• Algeria barley down 400,000 tons to 500,000 because of very slow buying.

• Saudi Arabia barley down 300,000 tons to 4.2 million with slow buying, after the reported liquidation of sheep infected with Rift Valley Fever.

• Mexico sorghum up 300,000 tons to 4.6 million tons due to continued strong demand by feedmillers.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003