WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast to be 107.3 million tons, up 4.3 million tons from 2000/01. Global production is forecast down as smaller crops in the United States, Canada, EU, China, and South Asia more than offset increases in Eastern Europe, FSU, North Africa, and Argentina. Consumption is expected to remain well above production for the third consecutive year leading global stocks to fall an estimated 25 million tons from last year to their lowest level in 19 years.
Wheat prices have fallen significantly over the past month with harvest pressure. In early July export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged $124/MT, down $10 from last month despite indications of tightening exportable supplies in some key countries. Expected global production fell nearly 1.5 million tons from last month mainly due to smaller expected crops in Australia, Canada, and the EU. Global consumption is expected down 1.2 million tons while ending stocks are forecast up almost 1 million tons. Though U.S. exports are estimated up, world wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast down slightly from last month.
2001/2002 Trade Changes
2000/2001 Trade Changes
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