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WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Global production and trade for 2002 are projected virtually unchanged. However, ending stocks are projected to decline 10.0 million tons, mostly in China, to 127.2 million as global consumption is forecast to increase to a new record level of 405.7 million tons.
Note: Historical revisions are made to Indonesia’s consumption and ending stocks back to 1970/71.
Exporter Forecasts for 2002
United States calendar year exports are projected at 2.6 million tons, a decline of 50,000 tons from the current year. Production is expected to reach 8.8 million tons (rough basis), increasing 140,000 tons from the current year. Despite an anticipated increase in rough rice exports, total exports are expected to fall, as the United States is not price competitive.
The export forecast for Thailand is flat, at 6.7 million tons as rice production is expected to be unchanged from the previous record crop.
Exports by Vietnam are expected to increase to 4.3 million tons, up 300,000 from the 2001 forecast. Production (paddy basis) is projected at 31.8 million tons, rising approximately 300,000 tons year-to-year.
China’s exports are estimated to be 200,000 tons above the current year’s forecast, reaching 2.0 million, with smaller production and consumption, stocks are expected to fall by 7.6 million tons.
Calendar year exports by India are forecast to increase slightly from the current year projections to 1.0 million tons owing to better price-competitiveness and stronger demand in Bangladesh, their largest market. Production (paddy basis) is forecast to again outpace consumption, leading to a fourth consecutive year of stocks build up.
The export forecast for Pakistan is expected to fall from the current year’s projection of 2.25 million tons to 2.0 million as production (paddy basis) is expected to fall 300,000 tons. Consequently, Pakistan is expected to draw down ending stocks to approximately 400,000 tons.
Argentina and Uruguay are expected to reduce exports to 250,000 and 650,000 tons, respectively due to lower domestic production and a slight decline in Latin American import demand.
The export forecast for Egypt is raised 25,000 tons to 525,000 while production is projected to remain flat year-to-year as Egypt is price competitive, particularly in Turkey.
Burma’s exports are projected to fall as government export and pricing policies are slow to respond to the changes in the global market.
Importers Forecasts for 2002
North America
The United States is expected to import 315,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons over the current year’s forecast as consumption of fragrant and speciality varieties is expected to continue to rise.
Total imports by Mexico are projected to remain flat at a projected 425,000 tons as imports of rough rice are expected to continue to be strong to supply the Mexican milling industry.
Latin America
Regionally, imports are expected to fall less than 100,000 tons even though production (paddy basis) remains relatively flat year-to-year. Imports by Brazil are expected to be flat at 500,000 tons, with consumption expected to be unchanged, as a result of a shift to more diverse diets.
Middle East
Increased imports in 2002 are anticipated as regional production (paddy basis) drops for the second consecutive year as a result of dry weather conditions. Consequently, forecast rice imports by Iran are expected to increase 250,000 tons in 2002 to 1.25 million.
Other Africa
While Africa’s production is expected to rise slightly and regional imports are expected to decline, stocks are forecast to be drawn-down as regional consumption increases.
Imports by Nigeria are forecast to decline as production is expected to increase and ending stocks build. Rising consumption is also anticipated.
South Asia
South Asia’s production, imports and ending stocks are forecast to increase as consumption continues to rise.
Bangladesh’s imports are forecast up as production is expected to fall from last year’s record level by nearly 1 million tons. With consumption forecast up, ending stocks are forecast down.
Other Asia
Imports by Asia are forecast flat for the third consecutive year. While production is expected to ease and consumption to increase, stocks are forecast to drop 10 million tons. China is expected to account for more than 75 percent of this decline, but Indonesia is also forecast to have a substantial drop in ending stocks.
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