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July 2001 Edition
Rice is White and Sometimes Brown
This Outlook Might Make You Frown
An anomaly persists in 2001/02 as world rice
prices continue to soften despite a projected decline in global
ending stocks. Since the major exporters* hold over 85% of the
global stocks, they are the key price-setters in a market which
lacks consistent import demand. Interest from traditional
importers has waned in the absence of domestic production
shortfalls or any expectation that global prices will strengthen
in the near term.
In 2001/02, global rice trade is forecast to be stagnant and
worldwide production is projected to be flat. Consumption,
however, continues to rise steadily and is estimated to grow
almost two percent fueled by global population growth. The result
will be forecast tighter stocks, down 10 million tons, attributed
primarily to an expected drawdown in China which holds at least
two-thirds of global carryover. Conversely, India, a major
exporter, is reportedly developing plans to utilize or sell-off
stocks which could risk a short-term price shock if those excess
supplies are dumped on the world market.
Complete Grain Report in PDF: Text and Tables
All Grain Summary Tables: Foreign Countries and US Data
Situation and Outlook: Commentary and Current Data
General Footnotes for Grain Tables
Grain and Feed
Contact List
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Data in this report is available in both Adobe Acrobat and Lotus 123 formats. You may need to Get the Adobe Acrobat Reader. |
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