SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND
OUTLOOK
World coarse grain trade for
2001/02 is projected down more than 2 million tons to 98.2
million tons, due to a production rebound from five-year-lows as
bigger crops are anticipated in many regions of the world except
the former Soviet Union, the EU, and the Western Hemisphere.
Global consumption is expected to continue to outpace production
and carryout stocks are forecast to fall almost 15 mmt. US corn,
China corn, and EU barley are forecast to comprise nearly
two-thirds of world coarse grain stocks.
Global corn trade is projected to
be down marginally from a year earlier at 70.5 million tons. US
exports are projected to increase 6 million tons from 2000/01
levels, mostly because of reduced competition from China.
Although the US corn crop is expected to be smaller than last
year and consumption is expected to increase, larger carryin
stocks will result in ending stocks will limit the reduction in
ending stocks. Chinese corn production is forecast to rebound
partially from the 2000/01 drought-reduced level but with
consumption forecast up to record levels, stocks will continue to
fall.
World barley trade is forecast to
remain robust as Mid Eastern and North African demand continues
strong. The EU will remain the largest supplier, although
Australia is expected to increase exports.
2001/02 Trade
Changes
Selected Exporters
- China corn down 1
million tons to 2 million due to continued high domestic
prices.
- Canada corn up
300,000 tons to 800,000 tons due to an expected larger
crop.
- Canada barley down
600,000 tons to 1.5 million due to lower expected
production.
- Australia barley up
300,000 tons to 3.9 million based on decreased
competition.
- EU barley down
500,000 tons to 8 million due to decreased crop prospects
and high domestic prices.
- United States sorghum
up 500,000 tons to 6.3 million because of expected
continued strong demand from Mexico.
Selected Importers
- Canada corn down
200,000 tons to 800,000 based on a larger anticipated
crop.
- Indonesia corn down
200,000 tons to 1.2 million due to the continued weakness
of the Indonesian Rupiah.
- Saudi Arabia barley
down 500,000 tons to 4.5 million due to weak demand for
feeding.
- Mexico sorghum up
500,000 tons to 4.5 million because of the expectation of
continued strong demand from feedmillers.
2000/01 Trade Changes
Selected Exporters
- United States corn
down 1.5 million tons to 45 million due to a slow sales
and shipment pace to date.
- Argentina corn up
500,000 tons to 13 million and Brazil corn up 1
million tons to 3 million because of a strong sales and
shipment pace to date.
- Ukraine barley up
200,000 tons to 1 million based on a strong export pace
to date.
- EU barley down 1
million tons to 8 million due to weaker global imports.
- United States sorghum
up 100,000 tons to 5.7 million supported by continuing
strong sales to Mexico.
- Argentina sorghum up
250,000 tons to 600,000 tons due to unusually strong
early season shipments to Brazil.
Selected Importers
- Canada corn up
300,000 tons to 1.7 million supported by a strong pace of
imports.
- Mexico corn down
500,000 tons to 5.5 million based on a slowdown of
purchases resulting from fewer import licenses. In lieu
of corn, Mexico sorghum up 200,000 tons to 4.3
million due to continued strong demand by feedmillers.
- Algeria barley up
200,000 tons to 900,000 based on purchases to date.
- Saudi Arabia barley
down 500,000 tons to 4.5 million because of slow buying
to date.
Download the coarse grains tables in:
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Lotus Spreadsheet Format
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003
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