SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World wheat trade in 2001/02 is
forecast to be 107.7 million tons, up 3.5 million tons from
2000/01. Global production is forecast down as smaller crops in
the United States, EU, and China more than offset increases in
Eastern Europe, FSU, and North Africa. Consumption is expected to
remain well above production for the third consecutive year.
Consequently, global stocks are forecast to fall 24 million tons
to their lowest level in 19 years. Though the top five
exporters stocks are expected to fall more than15 %, they
are still near the 10-year average which would tend to dampen any
price strengthening caused by smaller crops.
In early 2001/02, export quotes
for #2 HRW FOB Gulf are down $5 to $140/MT from a month earlier.
Expected global ending stocks fell by 7.3 million tons from last
month mainly due to a stocks drawdown in China resulting from a
lower than expected crop. Reduced stocks and a small increase in
global consumption, is forecast to result in a 2% lower global
stocks-to-use ratio to 22.3%. World wheat trade in 2001/02 is
forecast nearly identical to last month.
- Argentina up 500,000
tons to 13 million due to higher crop prospects.
- Australia down
500,000 tons to 17.5 million because of lower expected
- Canada down 500,000
tons due to decreased crop prospects.
- Kazakhstan down 0.5
million tons to 3.0 million due to increased competition
in the region.
- Syria up 200,000 tons
because of a larger expected crop and strong demand from
- Turkey down 500,000
tons to 500,000 due to lower forecast production.
- Ukraine up 500,000 to
2.5 million because of improved crop prospects.
- United States up 0.5
million tons to 27.5 million due to less competition
resulting from smaller crops among some leading
- China up 1 million
tons to 2 million with prospects for a smaller crop as a
result of drought in key producing areas.
- Romania down 300,000
tons to 200,000 due to better crop prospects.
- Turkey up 100,000
tons to 1 million because of a lower expected crop. Despite
a significant drop in production, imports will be limited
by Turkeys weak currency.
2000/2001 Trade Changes
- Argentina down 500,000
tons to 11.5 million due to a slower export pace.
- China up 200,000 tons
to 700,000 due to increased shipments of feed quality
wheat to East and Southeast Asian destinations.
- United States down 1
million tons to 29 million because of a lagging export
- Chile down 150,000
tons to 500,000 because of reduced purchases to date.
- Egypt down 400,000
tons to 5.8 million because of a lagging import pace.
Download the wheat tables in:
Adobe Acrobat Format
Lotus Spreadsheet Format
Return to Table of Contents
Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003