SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Global rice trade for 2001 is projected at 22.2 million tons, down nearly 600,000 tons down from the previous year. Global production (paddy basis) is forecast down 17.2 million tons to 590.1 million. Ending stocks are projected to decline 4.8 million tons to 134.4 million. Consumption, however, is projected to increase 2.4 million tons to 401.4 million.

While high global stocks and low import demand hinder growth in trade, many of the major exporting countries are behind their typical export pace. Global price quotes are steady to higher; the four week average for Thai 100B and Viet 5% is $172/ton and $153/ton, respectively.

Export price quotes for U.S. long grain grade #2/4 percent remain at $276 per ton (FAS), US Gulf sacked, while medium grain #1/4 California rice holds at $190 per ton, ex-spout Sacramento port.

Trade Changes in 2001

Selected Exporters

• China exports down 700,000 tons to 1.8 million due to a slower than expected pace to date.

• Pakistan up 250,000 tons to 2.25 million based on an increased pace to date.

Selected Importers

• Indonesia imports down 500,000 tons to 1.3 million based on a slower than expected pace to date and current government import policies.

• Iran down 400,000 tons to 1.0 million based on pace to date.

• Iraq down 300,000 tons to 1.0 million based on pace to date.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003