WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World coarse grain trade for 2001/02 is projected down nearly 1.5 million tons to 99 million tons, due to a production rebound from five year lows as bigger crops are anticipated in most regions of the world except the former Soviet Union. Global consumption is expected to continue to outpace production and carryout stocks are forecast to fall almost 15 mmt. US corn, China corn, and EU barley are forecast to comprise nearly two-thirds of world coarse grain stocks.
Global corn trade is projected to be down marginally from a year earlier at 71 million tons. US exports are projected to increase 4.5 million tons from 2000/01 levels, largely because of reduced competition from China. Although the US corn crop is expected to be smaller than last year and consumption is expected to increase, larger carryin stocks will result in ending stocks only declining marginally. Chinese corn production is forecast to rebound partially from the 2000/01 drought-reduced level but with consumption forecast up to record levels, stocks will continue to fall.
World barley trade is forecast to remain robust as Mid Eastern and North African demand continues strong. The EU will remain the largest supplier, although Russia, Ukraine, and Canada are forecast to increase exports.
2001/02 Trade Changes
2000/01 Trade Changes
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