SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World coarse grain trade for 2001/02 is projected down nearly 1.5 million tons to 99 million tons, due to a production rebound from five year lows as bigger crops are anticipated in most regions of the world except the former Soviet Union. Global consumption is expected to continue to outpace production and carryout stocks are forecast to fall almost 15 mmt. US corn, China corn, and EU barley are forecast to comprise nearly two-thirds of world coarse grain stocks.

Global corn trade is projected to be down marginally from a year earlier at 71 million tons. US exports are projected to increase 4.5 million tons from 2000/01 levels, largely because of reduced competition from China. Although the US corn crop is expected to be smaller than last year and consumption is expected to increase, larger carryin stocks will result in ending stocks only declining marginally. Chinese corn production is forecast to rebound partially from the 2000/01 drought-reduced level but with consumption forecast up to record levels, stocks will continue to fall.

World barley trade is forecast to remain robust as Mid Eastern and North African demand continues strong. The EU will remain the largest supplier, although Russia, Ukraine, and Canada are forecast to increase exports.

2001/02 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• United States corn up 1.5 million tons to 51 million in response to lessening competition.

• China corn down 2 million tons to 3 million due to a smaller expected crop and strong prices.

• Ukraine barley up 500,000 tons to 1 million due to a larger anticipated crop.

• Australia barley down 300,000 tons to 3.6 million, Canadian barley down 200,00 tons to 2.3 million, and EU barley down 500,000 tons to 8.5 million because of intensifying low cost competition in a shrinking market.

Selected Importers

• Iran corn down 400,000 tons to 700,000 tons due to smaller than expected current year import program.

• Morocco barley down 200,000 tons to 800,000 tons and Syria barley down 300,000 tons to 150,000 tons in response to larger anticipated crops.

2000/01 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• United States corn down 1 million tons to 46.5 million due to a slow sales and shipment pace to date.

• South Africa corn up 500,000 tons 1.6 million based on a strong sales pace to date.

• United States sorghum up 300,000 tons to 5.6 million supported by continuing strong sales to Mexico.

Selected Importers

• Canada corn up 100,000 tons to 1.4 million supported by a strong pace of imports.

• Iran corn down 400,000 tons to 700,000 tons due to a slow pace of imports to date.

• Mexico sorghum up by 300,000 tons to 4.1 million due to continued strong demand by feedmillers.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003