SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Global rice trade for 2001 is projected at 22.6 million tons, nearly unchanged from the previous year. Global production (paddy basis) is forecast down 15.2 million tons to 592.4 million. Based on revisions to stocks and consumption in China and Vietnam, global ending stocks and global stocks to use ratios have been adjusted upward.

Rice exporting countries scramble to find markets for burdensome stocks as new rice is harvested from the fields. Trade is slow and the market undertone is quiet. Despite some upward fluctuation in price, Thai 100B is holding firm at $170 per ton while Viet 5% increased slightly to $147.

Export price quotes for U.S. long grain grade #2/4 percent have risen slightly to $276 per ton (FAS), US Gulf sacked, while medium grain #1/4 California rice has fallen $20 per ton to $190, ex-spout Sacramento port.

Trade Changes in 2001

Selected Exporters

• Burma exports up 100,000 tons to 350,000 due to a stronger than expected export pace during the first quarter.

• China down 500,000 tons to 2.5 million based on slower than expected pace to date.

• Thailand up 400,000 tons to 6.7 million as strong exports outpace the previous year’s level.

Trade Changes in 2000

Selected Exporters

• Burma exports down to 159,000 tons due to revisions in official Burmese government trade data.

• Pakistan up 26,000 tons to 2.026 millions tons based on 2000 year-end data.

Selected Importers

• China, Ghana, Iraq, South Korea, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka imports adjusted based on year-end data from Pakistan.

• South Africa up 50,000 tons to 525,000 based on updated trade data.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003