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May 2001 Edition
2001/02 Global Wheat and Coarse Grain Trade Diverge
Production Tells the Story
Forecast wheat and coarse grain
consumption has risen significantly over the past decade and is
expected to reach record levels in 2001/02. Expanding wheat
consumption is largely linked to growing populations while
increased consumption of coarse grains is fueled by increasing
meat consumption.
Coarse grain production is expected to rebound significantly and
nearly keep pace with consumption. Both trade and stock levels
are expected to drop slightly with declining Chinese corn stocks
accounting for half of the decline in global corn stocks.
Although total coarse grain trade is projected down, U.S. corn
exports are forecast to increase 2 million tons because of
reduced competition. While coarse grain production is nearly
keeping pace with consumption, world wheat production is expected
to ease slightly resulting in a global stock drawdown of 19
million tons. The United States accounts for 6.5 million tons of
this drawdown, therefore, U.S. prices are expected to increase
thereby making exports less competitive. Forecast 2001/02 world
wheat trade is up nearly 2 million tons, but the U.S. is down 3
million.
Complete Grain Report in PDF: Text and Tables
All Grain Summary Tables: Foreign Countries and US Data
Situation and Outlook: Commentary and Current Data
Note: This report incorporates significant historical revisions in USDA estimates of China's domestic consumption and stocks of wheat, rice, and corn. A discussion of the revisions and a comparison of old and new estimates can be found in the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report which was published on May 10, 2001. Complete revisions to USDA grain supply and demand estimates for China are available at: http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm
General Footnotes for Grain Tables
Grain and Feed
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