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WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World coarse grain trade is projected down more than one million tons to 99.7 million tons in 2001/02. World production is expected to rebound from its five year low as bigger crops are anticipated in most regions of the world except the former Soviet Union. Global consumption is expected to continue to slightly outpace production and carryout stocks are forecast to fall. US corn, China corn, and EU barley are forecast to comprise nearly two-thirds of world coarse grain stocks. Although the US corn crop is expected to be smaller than last year, consumption is expected to decline so stocks are estimated to drop only marginally. Chinese corn production is forecast to recover from the 2000/01 drought-reduced level, but with consumption forecast up to record levels, stocks will continue to fall.
Corn trade is forecast down slightly in 2001/02 as production is expected to rebound in several important importing areas including Eastern Europe and Mexico. Global consumption is forecast at a record high. U.S. exports will continue to face strong competition from its traditional competitors, Argentina and China, and from a new competitor Brazil. Imports are forecast down in Asia, the world’s largest regional corn importer, as consumption continues to ebb. Middle East and North African imports are fueled by expanding poultry operations and snack food industries.
Barley trade is forecast to rise only slightly although limited rains and inadequate subsoil moisture in North Africa continue to limit production and reduce pasture areas. Poor weather and delayed plantings are expected to reduce EU production slightly and with small intervention stocks, exports are expected to remain flat. Lower exports by the U.S., Turkey, and the Ukraine, will leave room for larger sales by Australia and Canada, which are expected to have bigger crops. Like corn, global barley consumption is expected to outpace production for the forth straight year and stocks are expected to be reduced again this year.
Exporters
United States corn production is forecast down nearly 10 million tons but carryout stocks are forecast to decline only 2 million tons from 2000/2001. As a result, global prices are expected to remain relatively flat. Exports of corn are forecast up 2 million tons to 49.5 million tons. United States barley exports are forecast down by 350,000 tons to 650,000 due to the prospect of tighter supplies. Sorghum exports are expected to increase as Mexican imports are forecast to continue at last year’s pace.
China corn exports are forecast down 2 million tons to 5 million from 2000/2001 as lower expected world prices and more competition is expected to discourage the Chinese from engaging in a large export program.
Argentina corn exports are down 500,000 to 12 million tons from 2000/2001 as this year’s smaller crop will impact the 20001/02 Oct/Sept year.
Brazil will be a net corn exporter again in 20001/02, exporting 1 million tons which is half of the 2000/01 amount.
The European Union is expected to remain the largest barley exporter at 9 million tons and is expected to continue its no subsidy policy. Due to larger crops, Australia and Canada barley exports are expected to expand slightly to 3.9 and 2.5 million tons respectively.
Importers
Asia
Overall Asian import demand is expected to fall slightly in 2001/02. Lower feed needs resulting from the January 2001 WTO beef import liberalization in South Korea is expected to result in lower corn imports. Japan corn is expected to ease slightly as the domestic trend toward imported meat continues. Malaysia is expected to import more corn to fuel its expanding domestic poultry industries as it continues to recover from the Asia crisis. Taiwan is expected to have flat consumption, but steady import needs.
Middle East and North Africa
North Africa barley imports are forecast to increase 25% from 2000/01 levels as limited rains and inadequate subsoil moisture continue to reduce production and pasture areas. Egypt corn imports are expected to increase marginally to 4.8 million tons as higher corn imports fuel the poultry industry.
Latin America
Mexico corn imports are expected to be flat at 6 million tons, as another record corn crop is expected to keep import licenses at bay as feed millers are required to use local corn first. Mexico sorghum is expected to increase 200,000 tons to 4 million as sorghum is expected to be competitive with corn again. Brazil corn imports are forecast down 400,000 tons to 200,000 tons as they continue to export stocks from last year's record crop. Consumption gains in the rest of Latin America will be filled almost entirely by production gains.
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