SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World wheat trade in 2000/01 is forecast down 5.9 million tons from last year to 106.6 million. Global production is down for the third consecutive year while consumption is estimated 5 million tons lower than last year. Global stocks are forecast to fall 12.7 million tons thereby maintaining a low stocks-to-use ratio.

In early April, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf were $129 down $5 from a month earlier. Expected global ending stocks were raised by 4.7 million tons due to revisions in the EU and India. Consumption was lowered in these two countries, resulting in a 3.8 million-ton decline in global consumption and a slightly higher global stocks-to-use ratio. World wheat trade in 2000/01 is forecast identical to last month.

2000/2001 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• Canada down 500,000 tons to 18.5 million due to a lagging export pace.

• India up 500,000 tons to 2.0 million based on sales and shipments to date.

Selected Importers

• Mexico up 300,000 tons to 2.7 million based on purchases from the U.S. and Canada.

• Morocco up 200,000 tons to 3.3 million due to a strong import pace.

• Turkey down 400,000 tons to 900,000 based on a slow import pace and severe economic difficulties.

• United States down 100,000 tons to 2.4 million due to lower than expected imports to date.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003