SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World coarse grain trade for 2000/01 is projected down over 3 million tons to 101 million tons, due to larger crops in several major importing countries, especially Brazil and Russia. World production is expected to drop sharply as reductions in Eastern Europe and China are only partially offset by bigger crops in the United States, Brazil, and the EU. Global consumption is expected to remain near record levels and global carryout stocks are forecast down almost 22 million tons.

Global corn trade is projected down marginally from last year at 72.4 million tons. US exports are projected to drop slightly from 1999/00 levels, largely because of increased competition from Argentina and Brazil. World barley trade is forecast to remain robust as Mid Eastern and North African demand continues strong. Although exports are forecast for Australia and Canada, the EU will remain the largest supplier.

US Gulf FOB prices for corn have fallen by $5 from the last month to only slightly above $90 a ton.

2000/01 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• United States corn down 1.5 million tons to 49 million, in response to intensifying competition.

• Argentina corn up 500,000 tons to 12.5 million due to higher production.

• Brazil corn up 700,000 tons to 1.5 million with the prospects of a record crop and a strong short-term export program.

• Hungary corn up 200,000 tons to 500,000 based on better crop prospects.

• Thailand corn up 200,000 tons to 300,000 tons due to a recent flurry of sales to other Asian countries.

• United States barley up 50,000 tons to 1 million due to a strong export pace to date.

• United States sorghum up 300,000 tons to 5.3 million because of reduced domestic feeding and continued strong demand from Mexico.

• Turkey barley down 100,000 tons to 400,000 based on a weak export pace to date.

• EU oats up 100,000 tons to 800,000 based on a strong export license pace.

• EU rye down 400,000 tons to 1.1 million based on the slow pace of licenses to date.

Selected Importers

• Indonesia corn up 100,000 tons to 1.3 million, driven by decreased production.

• Egypt corn up 100,000 tons to 4.7 million, credited to a strong pace of imports and purchases to date.

• North Korea corn up 150,000 tons to 250,000 due to a strong shipment pace by China.

• Colombia corn down 200,000 tons to 1.8 million, Peru corn down 100,000 tons to 900,000, and Turkey corn down 200,000 tons to 1 million due to a slow pace of imports to date.

• United States barley up 50,000 to 650,000 due to strong import pace to date.

• Algeria barley down 100,000 tons to 700,000 and Morocco barley down 200,000 tons to 800,000 based on lower demand and prospects for better forage crops.

• Israel barley down 100,000 tons to 300,000 as relatively high prices slow purchases.

• Russia barley up 200,000 tons to 400,000 due to strong purchases to date.

• Mexico sorghum up 300,000 tons to 3.8 million based on a strong pace of imports and purchases to date.

• United States oats up 100,000 to 1.9 million due to strong EU sales.

• South Korea rye down 100,000 tons to 150,000 tons due to a slow pace of imports to date.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003