SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND
World coarse grain trade for
2000/01 is projected down over 3 million tons to 101 million
tons, due to larger crops in several major importing countries,
especially Brazil and Russia. World production is expected to
drop sharply as reductions in Eastern Europe and China are only
partially offset by bigger crops in the United States, Brazil,
and the EU. Global consumption is expected to remain near record
levels and global carryout stocks are forecast down almost 22
Global corn trade is projected
down marginally from last year at 72.4 million tons. US exports
are projected to drop slightly from 1999/00 levels, largely
because of increased competition from Argentina and Brazil. World
barley trade is forecast to remain robust as Mid Eastern and
North African demand continues strong. Although exports are
forecast for Australia and Canada, the EU will remain the largest
US Gulf FOB prices for corn have
fallen by $5 from the last month to only slightly above $90 a
- United States corn
down 1.5 million tons to 49 million, in response to
- Argentina corn up
500,000 tons to 12.5 million due to higher production.
- Brazil corn up
700,000 tons to 1.5 million with the prospects of a
record crop and a strong short-term export program.
- Hungary corn up
200,000 tons to 500,000 based on better crop prospects.
- Thailand corn up
200,000 tons to 300,000 tons due to a recent flurry of
sales to other Asian countries.
- United States barley
up 50,000 tons to 1 million due to a strong export pace
- United States sorghum
up 300,000 tons to 5.3 million because of reduced
domestic feeding and continued strong demand from Mexico.
- Turkey barley down
100,000 tons to 400,000 based on a weak export pace to
- EU oats up 100,000
tons to 800,000 based on a strong export license pace.
- EU rye down 400,000
tons to 1.1 million based on the slow pace of licenses to
- Indonesia corn up
100,000 tons to 1.3 million, driven by decreased
- Egypt corn up 100,000
tons to 4.7 million, credited to a strong pace of imports
and purchases to date.
- North Korea corn up
150,000 tons to 250,000 due to a strong shipment pace by
- Colombia corn down
200,000 tons to 1.8 million, Peru corn down
100,000 tons to 900,000, and Turkey corn down
200,000 tons to 1 million due to a slow pace of imports
- United States barley
up 50,000 to 650,000 due to strong import pace to date.
- Algeria barley down
100,000 tons to 700,000 and Morocco barley down
200,000 tons to 800,000 based on lower demand and
prospects for better forage crops.
- Israel barley down
100,000 tons to 300,000 as relatively high prices slow
- Russia barley up
200,000 tons to 400,000 due to strong purchases to date.
- Mexico sorghum up
300,000 tons to 3.8 million based on a strong pace of
imports and purchases to date.
- United States oats up
100,000 to 1.9 million due to strong EU sales.
- South Korea rye down
100,000 tons to 150,000 tons due to a slow pace of
imports to date.
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003