SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World wheat trade in 2000/01 is forecast down 5.9 million tons
from last year to 106.6 million. Global production is down for
the third consecutive year while consumption is presently
estimated to ease from last year. Global stocks are forecast to
fall 16.8 million tons thereby maintaining a low stocks to use
Over the past month, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf have
increased about $4 per ton to $135 in early March. World wheat
trade in 2000/01 is forecast nearly identical to last month.
2000/01 Trade Changes
- India up 300,000 tons to 1.5 million based on
sales resulting from the governments decision to
subsidize exports from their large stocks beyond the end
of their April/March marketing year.
- Kazakhstan down 500,000 tons to 4 million due to a
lagging export pace.
- Azerbaijan down 200,000 tons to 600,000 based on
lower projected imports resulting from a larger crop.
- Iraq up 300,000 tons to 3 million based on
purchases from Australia, Argentina, and India.
- Nigeria up 225,000 tons to 1.5 million based on a
strong import pace.
- Poland down 250,000 tons to 750,000 due to delays
in the governments decision to import.
- Russia down 500,000 tons to 2 million based on the
pace of shipments to date.
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003