SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND
OUTLOOK
World coarse grain trade for 2000/01 is projected down over 3
million tons to 101 million tons, due to larger crops in several
major importing countries, especially Brazil and Russia. World
production is expected to drop sharply as reductions in Eastern
Europe and China are only partially offset by bigger crops in the
United States, Brazil, and the EU. Global consumption is expected
to remain at near record levels and global carryout stocks are
forecast down over 22 million tons.
Global corn trade is projected to be down marginally from last
year at 72.4 million tons. US exports are projected to increase
over 1 million tons from 1999/00 levels, largely because of
reduced competition from China and Eastern Europe. World barley
trade is forecast to remain robust as Mid Eastern and North
African demand continues strong. The EU will remain the largest
supplier, although Australia and Canada are forecast to increase
exports.
US Gulf FOB prices for corn have fluxuated over the last
month, but are now only slightly above last month’s $94 a
ton.
2000/01 Trade
Changes
Selected Exporters
- United States corn down 1.5 million tons to
50.5 million, in response to intensifying competition.
- Argentina corn up 1.3 million tons to 12 million
because of growing demand by countries who seek to avoid
importing non approved varieties.
- South Africa corn down 200,000 tons to 1.1 million
because of sharply higher prices resulting from an
expected smaller crop.
- Brazil corn up 300,000 tons to 800,000 tons with
the prospects of a record crop and a strong short-term
export program.
- Canada barley down 200,000 tons to 2 million based
on a weaker than expected export pace.
- EU barley down 500,000 tons to 9.5 million due to
the slow pace of export licenses.
- EU oats up 100,000 tons to 700,000 based on a
recent surge of export licenses.
Selected Importers
- Mexico corn up 200,000 tons to 6 million,
substantiated by a strong pace of purchases.
- Egypt corn up 100,000 tons to 4.6 million,
credited to a strong pace of imports and purchases to
date.
- Saudi Arabia barley down 400,000 tons to 5 million
because of an expected reduction in imports in response
to lower livestock (sheep) numbers.
- United States oats up 100,000 tons to 1.8 million
due to a strong import pace to date.
Download the coarse grains tables in:
Adobe Acrobat Format
Lotus Spreadsheet Format
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003
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