SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World coarse grain trade for 2000/01 is projected down over 2 million tons to 101.7 million tons, due to larger crops in several major importing countries, especially Brazil and Russia. World production is expected to drop sharply as reductions in Eastern Europe and China are only partially offset by bigger crops in the United States, Brazil, and the EU. Global consumption is expected to continue to grow to record levels and global carryout stocks are forecast down 23 million tons.

Global corn trade is projected to be down marginally, at 72.5 million tons. US exports are projected to increase nearly 3 million tons from 1999/00 levels, largely because of reduced competition from China and Eastern Europe. World barley trade is forecast to remain robust as Mid Eastern and North African demand continues strong. The EU will remain the largest supplier, although Australia and Canada are forecast to increase exports.

US Gulf FOB prices for corn have declined over the last month and are now approximately $94 a ton.

2000/01 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• United States corn down 2.5 million tons to 52 million due to increased competition from Argentina, Brazil, and China.

• Argentina corn up 700,000 tons to 10.7 million because of strong sales from the 1999/2000 crop.

• China corn up 2 million tons to 6 million because of a strong shipment pace to date.

• United States barley up 100,000 tons to 950,000 based on a strong pace to date.

• Canada oats up 100,000 tons to 1.3 million tons based on stronger than expected pace to date.

Download the coarse grains tables in:

Adobe Acrobat Format

Lotus Spreadsheet Format

Return to Table of Contents

Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003