SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World wheat trade in 2000/01 is estimated down 4.5 million tons from last year to 106.9 million. Global production is down 9 million tons while consumption is almost unchanged. Despite a global stocks drawdown in 2000/01 of more than 17.5 million tons, stocks in the five major exporting countries are down only 4.8 million tons.

Over the past month, wheat prices have increased slightly. Early January export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged about $135 per ton. World wheat trade in 2000/01 is forecast up slightly from last month because of an increase in imports from the Ukraine and a few other countries. Global production is down 1.5 million tons from last month.

2000/2001 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• Australia up 500,000 tons to 16 million due to a strong export pace for the first half of the year.

• Ukraine down 200,000 tons to 300,000 reflecting a smaller crop.

Selected Importers

• China down 500,000 tons to 1.5 million based on slow purchases during the first half of the year.

• Morocco up 100,000 tons to 3.1 million based on the strong pace of shipments to date.

• Ukraine up 400,000 tons to 1 million due to a smaller than expected crop.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003