SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World wheat trade in 2000/01 is estimated at 106.6 million tons, off 4.5 million from last year. Global production is down in large part because of smaller harvest in Australia, China, Kazakstan, and the United States. Bumper harvests among major South Asian producers like India and Pakistan, will not only reduce their import needs but allow them to export. Global consumption is down slightly but is almost 17 million tons more than production.

In early December, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged about $130 per ton, little changed from last month. World wheat trade in 2000/01 is forecast up slightly from last month largely because of higher imports of wheat for feeding by South Korea. More Canadian exports are offset less from the EU. Supplies of quality wheat have tightened while feed quality wheat is more abundant.

2000/2001 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• United States up 500,000 tons to 30.5 million due to a higher global imports.

• EU down 1 million tons to 15 million due to the slow export licensing pace and Commission concerns over high domestic prices for both high quality and wheat for feeding.

• Canada up 1 million tons to 19 million reflecting a larger crop.

Selected Importers

• Brazil up 200,000 tons to 7.9 million based on stronger import demand resulting from a smaller crop.

• South Korea up 500,000 tons to 4 million due to increased purchases of Australian wheat for feeding.

• Cuba up 200,000 tons to 1.2 million based on a higher level of consumption.

• Uzbekistan up 100,000 tons to 700,000 based on consumption needs.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003