SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Global rice trade for 2001 is projected at 23.3 million tons,
nearly unchanged from the current year. While world production in
2000/01 is forecast to decline by 6.4 million tons (rough basis),
consumption will increase narrowly year to year by 2.2 million
tons. Ending stocks for 2001 are forecast down by 2.1 million
Nominal price quotes for Asian milled rice have been virtually
unchanged for the past 3 months, and remain the lowest since
spring of 1993.
Export prices for U.S. long grain grade #2, 4 percent have
risen slightly to $287 per ton. In contrast, export prices for
U.S. medium grain #1/4 California rice have declined to $225 per
ton compared to $340 in early October.
2001 Trade Changes
- United States down 100,000 to 2.65 million due to
reduced import demand and uncompetitive prices for long
grain milled rice.
- India down 500,000 tons to 1.3 million due to
expected drop in import demand and uncompetitive prices.
- Thailand down 300,000 tons to 6.3 million due to
projected lack of demand by major importers.
- China and Vietnam down 200,000 tons to 3.2 and 3.8
million, respectively, due to an expected drop in import
demand in 2001.
- Egypt up 50,000 to 500,000 due to a larger
projected crop and a revised government regulation to
allow the export of rough rice.
- United States imports down 50,000 tons to 300,000
due an expected slower pace of imports in 2001.
- Indonesia down 1.2 million tons to 1.8 million due
to bumper crop in 2000.
- Philippines down 300,000 tons to 700,000 due to
projected larger production.
2000 Trade Changes
- Australia exports up 25,000 tons to 575,000 based
on the pace of shipments and sales to date.
- Burma up 50,000 tons to 300,000 based on the pace
of shipments to date.
- Thailand up 300,000 tons to 6.3 million based on
the pace of sales and exports to date.
- Vietnam down 200,000 tons to 3.2 million due to
slow pace of exports and slim forward contracts to date.
- Egypt up 50,000 tons to 500,000 due to a larger
- Indonesia down 200,000 tons to 1.8 million due to
bumper crop and government proclamations not to import
through the end of the year.
- United States down 50,000 tons to 275,000 due to
slow pace of imports to date.
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003