SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World coarse grain trade for 2000/01 is projected down nearly 3 million tons to 100.8 million tons, due to larger crops in several major importing countries, especially Brazil and Russia. World production is down 3% as reductions in Eastern Europe and China are only partially offset by bigger crops in the United States, Brazil, and the EU. Global consumption is expected to continue to grow to record levels and global carryout stocks are forecast to fall 25 million tons.

Global corn trade is projected to be off marginally, at 72.4 million tons. US exports are now projected to increase more than 6 million tons from 1999/00 levels, largely because of reduced competition from China and Eastern Europe. World barley trade is forecast to remain robust as Mid Eastern and North African demand continues strong. The EU will remain the largest supplier, although Australia and Canada have larger exportable supplies.

US Gulf FOB prices for corn have risen over the last two months and are now over $90 a ton.

2000/01 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• United States corn down 1.5 million tons to 55.5 million due to increased competition from Argentina and reduced global imports.

• Argentina corn up 1 million tons to 9.5 million because of a larger 99/00 crop and strong sales.

• Canada barley exports up 200,000 tons to 2.2 million due to larger crop.

• Australia sorghum up 500,000 tons to 700,000 because of increased production.

Selected Importers

• South Korea corn down 500,000 tons to 8 million because of higher expected imports of wheat for feeding.

• Japan corn down 300,000 tons to 16 million replaced by imports of sorghum, which are up 500,000 tons to 2.1 million.

• Brazil corn down 200,000 tons to 800,000 due to projected increased production.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003