WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World wheat trade in 2000/01 is estimated at 105.9 million tons, down 3 million from last year. U.S. exports are up slightly from last year due to reduced competition. Global production is down largely because of a sharp drop in Chinas production. Forecast consumption is up marginally, but is well above production for the third straight year resulting in a stocks drawdown of 16 million tons, the largest since 1994/95.
Over the past month, wheat prices have continued to increase. In early November, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf reached their highest level in two years averaging about $130 per ton, up $20 from a year ago. World wheat trade in 2000/01 is forecast up slightly from last month.
2000/2001 Trade Changes
- Argentina up 1 million tons to 12 million reflecting larger crop prospects.
- Australia down 1 million tons reflecting lower crop expectations.
- India up 500,000 tons to 1 million based on the governments decision to encourage exports of surplus stocks.
- Kazakstan up 500,000 tons reflecting larger crop prospects and increased sales prospects to nearby countries.
- United States down 500,000 tons to 30 million due to a lagging export pace.
- Hungary up 300,000 tons due to an expected increase in imports of feed wheat to substitute for the drought reduced corn crop.
- Israel up 200,000 tons to 1.5 million due to an increase in purchases of feed quality wheat.
- United States down 100,000 due to a slow import pace.
- Uzbekistan up 300,000 based on a smaller crop.
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