SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Global rice trade for 2001 is projected at 24.6 million tons, up 2.2 million tons from the current year. World production and ending stocks in 2000/01 are forecast to decline by 7.6 million tons and 4.1 million respectively, while consumption will increase only narrowly year to year.

Nominal price quotes for Asian milled rice are virtually the same as levels reported more than 2 months ago. Price quotes for Thailand’s 100 percent grade B milled rice rose in early October due to flooding and transportation difficulties in parts of South and Southeast Asia and large purchases by South Korea. However, prices have since rescinded.

Export prices for U.S. long grain grade 2, 4 percent have risen over the past 5 weeks in response to several PL 480 tenders and a reluctance by farmers to sell. This has resulted in an increase in the U.S. price difference over comparable grades of Asian rice, limiting U.S. competitiveness in some markets. In contrast, export prices for U.S. medium grain milled rice have dropped substantially over the past 5 weeks on expectations of large supplies in 2000/01.

Trade Changes in 2001

Selected Exporters

• China exports up 200,000 tons to 3.4 million.

• Japan up 100,000 tons to 500,000 based on larger food aid commitments in early 2001.

Selected Importers

• North Korea imports up 200,000 tons to 550,000 due to expected food aid donations from neighboring Asian nations.

• Russia imports up 130,000 tons to 480,000.

Trade Changes in 2000

Selected Exporters

• China exports up 200,000 tons to 3.2 million based the pace of shipments through August.

• Thailand up 200,000 tons to 6 million based on recent large sales and pace of shipments to date.

• United States down 100,000 to 2.8 based on pace of shipments to date.

Selected Importers

• North Korea imports up 100,000 tons to 400,000 due recent large commitments of food aid.

• Madagascar up 140,000 tons to 200,000 based on pace of imports to date.

Download the rice tables in:

Adobe Acrobat Format

Lotus Spreadsheet Format

Return to Table of Contents

Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003