October 2000 Edition
Large Stocks expected to
Limit Trade Changes in China
Drought reduced crop prospects in China
are expected to cause a drawdown in ending stocks for all grains.
Consequently, FOB Dalian corn prices have risen nearly 15% over
the last six months. Potential exports will depend mostly on
government policy, which has not yet been announced for 2001. In
the past, higher domestic prices and a tighter supply situation
has induced the government to divert stocks to the domestic
market at the expense of exports. With rising US corn export
prices, it is becoming more cost effective for the Chinese to
move corn from the northern growing areas to the southern
consuming areas rather than import.
Despite an expected drop in wheat production, stagnant consumption and adequate stocks will limit imports this year. The last time production was at this level was in 1995 when imports were 12 million tons.
All Grain Summary Tables: Foreign Countries and US Data
Situation and Outlook: Commentary and Current Data
Historical Data Tables: Selected Regions and Countries
General Footnotes for Grain Tables
Grain and Feed Contact List
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