SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND
World coarse grain trade for
2000/01 is projected down almost 3 million tons to 100.4 million
tons. World production is expected to drop sharply as bigger
crops in the United States, Brazil, and the EU only partially
offset reductions in Argentina, Eastern Europe, and China. Growth
in global consumption is expected to continue strong, so even
with a record US corn crop, global carryout stocks are forecast
to decline 24 million tons.
Global corn trade is forecast
down marginally, at 72.6 million tons. US exports are now
projected to increase 8 million tons over forecast 1999/00
levels, largely because of reduced competition from Argentina,
China, and Eastern Europe. World barley trade is forecast to
remain robust as Mid Eastern and North African demand continues
strong. The EU will remain the largest supplier, although
Australia and Canada are forecast to increase exports.
US Gulf FOB prices for corn have
risen to more than $85 a ton on expectations of a lower crop than
currently predicted. Futures prices indicate these higher export
prices could continue for the next several months.
- United States corn
exports up 2 million tons to 57 million due to expected
reduced competition from Argentina and China increased
imports by a number of countries.
- Argentina corn down
500,000 tons to 8.5 million tons due to reduced crop
- Australia barley down
300,000 tons to 3.6 million due to reduced crop
- Canada barley down
300,000 tons to 2 million tons due to reduced crop
- United States sorghum
down 500,000 tons to 5.0 million tons because of sharply
- Mexico corn up
500,000 tons to 5.5 million and Japan corn up
200,000 tons to 16.3 million tons due to substitution for
- South Korea corn down
200,000 tons to 8.0 million because of reduced demand
from feedmillers resulting from the foot and mouth
- Brazil corn up
250,000 tons to 1 million tons due to a drought reduced
- Canada corn up
300,000 tons to 1.3 million because of reduced crop
- United States corn
exports up 1 million tons to 49 million because of a
larger than expected late season shipments.
- United States barley
up 125,000 tons to 725,000 due to strong late season
sales to Saudi Arabia.
- Egypt corn up 300,000
tons to 4.6 million tons due to a stronger than expected
import pace to date.
- Indonesia corn up
300,000 tons to 1.1 million because of a stronger than
expected import pace.
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003