SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Global rice trade for 2001 is projected at 24.4 million tons, virtually unchanged from a month earlier due to several offsetting revisions among major trading countries. World production and ending stocks in 2000/01 are forecast to decline, while consumption remains nearly the same. The drawdown in global stocks month to month is attributed to declines in the US, Pakistan, the EU, China and Iran.

Nominal price quotes for Asian milled rice have continued to decline over the past month. Some trade sources have indicated that prices for Thailand’s 100 percent grade B dropped to their lowest level since January 1987. Likewise, prices for Vietnam’s 5 percent broken and Pakistan’s 15/20 percent softened over the past 5 weeks, while export prices for U.S. long grain grade 2, 4 percent broken rice have remained flat.

Trade Changes in 2001

Selected Exporters

• China exports up 200,000 tons to 3.2 million due to strong exports in 2000.

• Pakistan down 200,000 tons to 1.8 million as a result of smaller forecast production.

• United States down 100,000 tons to 2.8 million based on lower production and beginning stocks forecasts.

Selected Importers

• Iran imports down 200,000 tons to 1.4 million.

Trade Changes in 2000

Selected Exporters

• China exports up 200,000 tons to 3 million based shipments to date.

• Thailand down 200,000 tons to 5.8 million due to lack of forward contract commitments with major importers.

Selected Importers

• Bangladesh imports up 100,000 tons to 500,000 tons because of overland shipments from Burma.

• Iran down 100,000 tons to 1.1 million based on purchases by the Government grain buyer, GTC.

• Iraq up 100,000 tons to 950,000 due to robust purchases under the UN-mandated Oil-for-Food program.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003