SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND
OUTLOOK
World coarse grain trade for
2000/01 is projected down marginally to 99.7 million. Slightly
higher world production is expected as bigger crops in the United
States, Brazil, and the EU more than offset reductions in Eastern
Europe and China. Growth in global consumption is expected to
continue strong, so even with a record US corn crop, global
carryout stocks are forecast to decline slightly.
Global corn trade is forecast up
marginally, at 71 million tons. US exports are now projected to
increase 7 million tons over forecast1999/00 levels, largely
because of reduced competition from China and Eastern Europe.
World barley trade is forecast to remain robust as Mid Eastern
and North African demand continues strong. The EU will remain the
largest supplier, although Australia and Canada are forecast to
increase exports.
US Gulf FOB prices for corn
remain below $80 and futures indicate the lower export prices
will continue into the new crop year.
2000/01 Trade
Changes
Selected Exporters
- United States corn
exports up 1.5 million tons to 55 million due to expected
increased imports by Mexico and a few others and reduced
competition from Eastern Europe.
- Hungary corn down
300,000 tons to 200,000 tons due to a drought reduced
crop.
- Australia barley up
300,000 tons to 3.9 million because of increased
prospective production.
- United States sorghum
down 500,000 tons to 5.5 million tons due to sharply
lower production.
Selected Importers
- Mexico corn up
500,000 tons to 5.5 million due to substitution for
sorghum imports.
- South Korea corn down
300,000 tons to 8.2 million because of reduced demand
from feedmillers resulting from the recent foot and mouth
disease outbreak.
1999/00 Trade
Changes
Selected Exporters
- United States corn
exports up 1 million tons to 48 million because of a
larger than expected late season shipments.
- United States barley
up 50,000 tons to 600,000 due to strong late season
sales.
Selected Importers
- Egypt corn up 300,000
tons to 4.3 million tons due to a stronger than expected
import pace to date.
- Russia barley up
50,000 tons to 650,000 tons due to a strong late season
imports.
Download the coarse grains tables in:
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Lotus Spreadsheet Format
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003
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