SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World wheat trade in 2000/01 is
estimated at 106.1 million tons, similar to last years
level, which was the highest in 7 years. U.S. export prospects
are tempered by big exportable supplies in Argentina, Australia,
Canada, and the EU. Global production is down due mainly to
smaller Chinese and North African crops, though the declines are
partly offset by record crops in India and Pakistan. Forecast
consumption remains well above production, resulting in a third
year of global stocks draw down. However, any upward stimulus to
prices will be mitigated by continued large stocks in the major
Over the past month, U.S. wheat
prices have remained at just above decade lows. In early August,
export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged about $110 per ton for
nearby shipment, down $10 from a year ago. World wheat trade in
2000/01 is up 350,000 tons this month, boosted by higher imports
by the EU, Indonesia, and Iraq.
- Canada exports up
500,000 tons to 19.5 million, reflecting larger crop
- United States down
500,000 tons to 30 million due to increased competition.
- EU imports up 200,000
tons to 4 million as reports of quality problems raise
forecasts of high-quality wheat imports.
- Indonesia up 200,000
tons to 3.7 million based on recent stepped-up buying.
- Iraq up 200,000 tons
to 2.7 million due to bigger reported purchases under the
U.N.-sponsored oil-for-food program.
- EU exports up 500,000
tons to 16 million based on strong late-season sales.
- Japan exports up
300,000 tons to 600,000 on accelerated flour sales to
- United States exports
up 500,000 tons to 29.5 million due to big late-season
- Egypt imports up
300,000 tons to 5.8 million due to a surge in late-season
- Indonesia up 400,000
tons to 3.9 million on unexpectedly strong wheat and
- Iran imports up
200,000 tons to 7.2 million because of stronger
- Pakistan down 200,000
tons to 2 million due to delays in expected food aid
- Philippines up
200,000 tons to 3 million on a pick up in late season
buying for feeding.
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003