SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND
OUTLOOK
World coarse grain trade for
2000/01 is projected up only marginally to 99.3 million. Slightly
higher world production is expected as bigger crops in the United
States, Brazil, and the EU more than offset reductions in Eastern
Europe and China. Growth in global consumption is expected to
continue strong. With a record US corn crop, global carryout
stocks are forecast to increase nearly three million tons.
Global corn trade is forecast up
marginally, at 70 million tons. US exports are projected to
increase 6.5 million tons over forecast1999/00 levels, largely
because of reduced competition from China, Eastern Europe, and
Argentina. World barley trade is forecast to remain robust as Mid
Eastern and North African demand continues strong. The EU will
remain the largest supplier, although Australia and Canada are
forecast to increase exports.
US Gulf FOB prices for corn
remain below $80 and futures indicate the lower export prices
will continue into the new crop year.
2000/01 Trade
Changes
Selected Exporters
- United States corn
exports up 1.5 million tons to 53.5 million due to
expected reduced competition from Argentina and China
- China corn down 1
million tons to 4 million because of low US prices.
Selected Importers
- Brazil corn imports
down 250,000 tons to 750,000 due to an increased
production estimate.
- China corn down
100,000 tons to 150,000 because of a slow down in the
import pace in the current year.
1999/00 Trade
Changes
Selected Exporters
- United States corn
exports up 500,000 tons to 47 million because of a larger
than expected late season sales to Asian countries.
- South Africa corn
exports down 300,000 tons to 900,000 due to the slow pace
of shipments of newly harvested corn.
- United States barley up
50,000 tons to 550,000 due to recent sales to Saudi
Arabia.
Selected Importers
- Canada corn imports
down 100,000 tons to 700,000 due to a slower than
expected import pace to date.
- Indonesia corn up
100,000 tons to 700,000 and Philippines corn up
75,000 tons to 450,000 because of continuing strong
demand by feedmillers.
- China corn down
100,000 tons to 150,000 because of a slower than expected
import pace to date.
- United States barley
up 50,000 tons to 650,000 due to a stronger than expected
import pace to date
Download the coarse grains tables in:
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003
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