SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World wheat trade in 2000/01 is estimated at 105.8 million tons, the highest level in 8 years. U.S. export prospects are helped by firmer world import demand, although they face stronger competition from big exportable supplies in Australia, Canada, and the EU. Global production is down due mainly to smaller Chinese and North African crops, though the declines are partly offset by record crops in India and Pakistan. Forecast consumption remains well above production, resulting in a third year of global stocks draw down. However, any upward stimulus to prices will be mitigated by continued large stocks in the major exporting countries.

Over the past month, U.S. wheat prices have remained stable at just above decade lows. In early July, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged about $115 per ton for nearby shipment, up $8 from a year ago. World wheat trade in 2000/01 is down half a million tons this month, with higher imports by the Philippines and Eastern Europe only partly offsetting big declines in Pakistan and Uzbekistan.

2000/01 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• Canada exports up 1 million tons to 19 million, reflecting larger crop prospects.

• Ukraine down 500,000 tons to 500,000 because of dwindling crop expectations.

• United States down 500,000 tons to 30.5 million due to increased competition anticipated from Canada and other major exporters.

Selected Importers

• Pakistan imports down 450,000 tons to 50,000 as a record crop is likely to sharply reduce import needs.

• Philippines up 400,000 tons to 3 million based on recent accelerated buying for feeding which is expected to continue.

• Uzbekistan down 550,000 tons to 200,000 due to reports of a record crop.

1999/2000 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• Romania exports up 400,000 tons to 1 million based on unexpectedly strong shipments.

Selected Importers

• Indonesia imports up 300,000 tons to 3.5 million due to stepped-up imports in the second half of the season.
  
• Iraq up 200,000 tons to 2.7 million on a late-season surge in arrivals under the U.N.-sponsored oil-for-food deal.
  
• Pakistan down 300,000 tons to 2.2 million due to delays in expected food aid shipments.
  
• Philippines up 300,000 tons to 2.8 million on a pickup in late season buying for feeding.

• South Korea up 300,000 tons to 3.8 million due to bigger-than-expected feed wheat purchases.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003