SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World coarse grain trade for 2000/01 is projected up 1.2 million tons to 100.3 million, the highest level since 1989/90. Higher world production is expected as bigger crops in the United States, Argentina, Brazil, and the EU more than offset reductions in Eastern Europe and China. Growth in global consumption is expected to continue strong. Global carryout stocks are forecast to rise slightly due to a bigger US crop.

Global corn trade is forecast up 515,000 tons, to the highest level since 1994/95. US exports are projected to increase 5.5 million tons over 1999/00 levels largely the result of reduced competition from China and Eastern Europe. World barley trade is forecast to remain robust as Mid Eastern and North African demand continues strong. Although Australia and Canada are forecast to increase exports, the EU will remain the largest supplier.

In the last month, US FOB corn prices have dropped nearly $10 and have averaged below $80 per ton for the first week of July out of the Gulf. The declining CBT December furtures also indicate lower export prices will continue into the new crop year. This development will make the US more competitive in the Asian market against Chinese corn.

2000/01 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• United States corn exports up 2.5 million tons to 52 million due to expected reduced competition from Eastern Europe and China.
  
• China corn down 1 million tons because of increased competition from the United States.
  
• Hungary corn down 1.7 million tons due to a drought reduced crop.
  
• EU barley down 1 million tons due to a stronger than expected level of late season 1999/2000 licenses.

Selected Importers

• Brazil corn imports down 400,000 tons to 1 million due to an anticipated slowdown in imports.
  
• Canada corn up 200,000 tons to 700,000 tons because of a lower expected crop.
  
• Algeria barley down 200,000 tons to 800,000 tons, Iran barley down 200,000 to 1 million and Morocco barley down 200,000 to 1.0 million due to a larger than expected current year import program.
  

1999/00 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• EU barley exports up 1 million tons to 10.5 million tons due to a larger than expected amount of licenses.
  
• Argentina sorghum down 50,000 tons to 550,000 because of a slower than expected export pace.
  
• Australia sorghum up 50,000 tons to 250,000 tons due to larger than expected exports to date.

Selected Importers

• South Korea corn imports down 500,000 tons to 8.5 million due to lower expected demand by feedmillers.

• Indonesia corn up 100,000 tons to 600,000 because of continuing strong demand by feedmillers.

• Algeria barley up 200,000 tons to 800,000 tons, Iran barley up 200,000 tons to 1 million tons and Morocco barley up 200,000 tons to 1.1 million due to stronger than expected imports.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003