SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND
World coarse grain trade for
2000/01 is projected up 1.2 million tons to 100.3 million, the
highest level since 1989/90. Higher world production is expected
as bigger crops in the United States, Argentina, Brazil, and the
EU more than offset reductions in Eastern Europe and China.
Growth in global consumption is expected to continue strong.
Global carryout stocks are forecast to rise slightly due to a
bigger US crop.
Global corn trade is forecast up
515,000 tons, to the highest level since 1994/95. US exports are
projected to increase 5.5 million tons over 1999/00 levels
largely the result of reduced competition from China and Eastern
Europe. World barley trade is forecast to remain robust as Mid
Eastern and North African demand continues strong. Although
Australia and Canada are forecast to increase exports, the EU
will remain the largest supplier.
In the last month, US FOB corn
prices have dropped nearly $10 and have averaged below $80 per
ton for the first week of July out of the Gulf. The declining CBT
December furtures also indicate lower export prices will continue
into the new crop year. This development will make the US more
competitive in the Asian market against Chinese corn.
- United States corn
exports up 2.5 million tons to 52 million due to expected
reduced competition from Eastern Europe and China.
- China corn down 1
million tons because of increased competition from the
- Hungary corn down 1.7
million tons due to a drought reduced crop.
- EU barley down 1
million tons due to a stronger than expected level of
late season 1999/2000 licenses.
- Brazil corn imports
down 400,000 tons to 1 million due to an anticipated
slowdown in imports.
- Canada corn up
200,000 tons to 700,000 tons because of a lower expected
- Algeria barley down
200,000 tons to 800,000 tons, Iran barley down
200,000 to 1 million and Morocco barley down
200,000 to 1.0 million due to a larger than expected
current year import program.
- EU barley exports up
1 million tons to 10.5 million tons due to a larger than
expected amount of licenses.
- Argentina sorghum
down 50,000 tons to 550,000 because of a slower than
expected export pace.
- Australia sorghum up
50,000 tons to 250,000 tons due to larger than expected
exports to date.
- South Korea corn
imports down 500,000 tons to 8.5 million due to lower
expected demand by feedmillers.
- Indonesia corn up
100,000 tons to 600,000 because of continuing strong
demand by feedmillers.
- Algeria barley up
200,000 tons to 800,000 tons, Iran barley up
200,000 tons to 1 million tons and Morocco barley
up 200,000 tons to 1.1 million due to stronger than
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003