SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World wheat trade in 2000/01 is
projected to be 106.3 million tons, the highest level in 8 years.
Competition remains strong from Australia, Canada, and the EU,
but the US is projected to export 31 million tons, the highest
level since 1995/96. Global production is down nearly 11 million
tons from 1999/00, with a decline in China more than offsetting
increases in the EU. Global wheat consumption is expected to
outstrip production in 2000/01 by 20 million tons. Global stocks
are forecast to decline by the end of 2000/01 to their lowest
level since 1975/76. However, any price increase will be
relatively small because of continued large supplies in the major
Over the past month,
U.S. wheat prices have risen modestly but remain close to decade
lows. In early June, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged
about $117 per ton for nearby shipment, little changed from a
- Australia exports are
forecast up 500,000 tons as a slower export pace in
1999/00 is expected to increase export availability for
- Eastern Europe down
due to a smaller expected crops: Romania
exports down 400,000 tons to
200,000 tons; Bulgaria, down 200,000 tons to
150,000 tons; and Poland down 150,000 tons to
- Ukraine forecast down
by 1 million tons to 1 million because of lower crop
- U.S. exports up
500,000 tons to 31 million tons due to reduced
- China imports up 1
million tons to 3.5 million as production is forecast to
fall even further than earlier expectations. Imports in
the last half of the 1999/00 year have also picked up
from earlier expectations.
- Pakistan down 2.0
million tons to 500,000, the lowest import level since
1987/88, because of a higher expected crop.
- China imports up
200,000 tons to 1.0 million due to a recent acceleration
of import pace.
- Nigeria imports up
200,000 tons to 1.4 million.
- Morocco imports up
300,000 due to stepped-up shipment levels.
- Bangladesh down
200,000 because of reduced imports late in the year.
- North Korea down
450,000 tons due to slower deliveries of food assistance.
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003