SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Global rice trade is forecast to reach the third highest level on record in 2000, even though world trade is expected to decline for the second consecutive year. Exports by many major suppliers are estimated to shrink with decreasing Asian demand. US exports, however, are projected to increase slightly as import demand remains strong in traditional U.S. markets. Plentiful harvests are projected for all major rice exporters and importers in 1999/2000 resulting in record global production and ending stocks. World consumption is forecast to surge more than 10 million tons over the previous year, climbing to a record 400 million ton level.

Global rice prices are likely to continue to soften throughout 2000 due to the excess availability of exportable supplies. U.S. rice export prices slipped again over the past month and stay at near decade lows. During the same period, export prices in Vietnam fell precipitously to reach their lowest level in 9 years, while Thai prices remained relatively flat, though softening a few dollars on the lower grades. The market remains comparatively quite overall with little expectation of price strengthening.

2000 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• Thailand exports up 200,000 tons to 6.0 million as last year’s record sales pace is maintained.

• Vietnam down 200,000 tons to 3.4 million due to sparse export prospects and the slow pace of sales during the first quarter of the calendar year, despite an increased production forecast.

• China up 200,000 tons to 2.8 million due to stronger than projected exports.

Selected Importers

• Philippine imports boosted 300,000 tons to 800,000 owing to recent import tenders and announced PL480 allocations from the United States.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003