SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World coarse grain trade for 2000/01 is projected up 2.7 million tons to 100.7 million, the highest level since 1998/90. Higher world production is expected as bigger crops in Argentina, Brazil, the EU and the United States more than offset reductions in China and South Africa. Growth in global consumption is expected to continue strong but will slightly trail consumption. Carryout stocks are forecast to rise largely due to a bigger U.S. crop.

Global corn trade is forecast up 1.3 million tons, to the highest level since 1994/95. US exports are projected to increase 3 million tons over 1999/00 levels largely the result of reduced competition from China. World barley trade is forecast to remain robust as Mid Eastern and North African demand continues strong. Although Australia and Canada are forecast to increase exports, the EU will remain the largest supplier and is currently forecast to export a record 10.5 million tons.

2000/01 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• United States corn exports up 1 million tons to 49.5 million due to increased demand.
  
• Australia barley exports up 200,000 to 3.6 million because of continuing strong global demand and a bigger expected crop.
  
• United States sorghum exports up 300,000 tons due to higher expected Mexican demand.
  
• EU rye up 200,000 tons to 1.7 million fueled by higher expected East European demand resulting from anticipated drought reduced crops.

Selected Importers

• Taiwan corn up 400,000 tons to 5.1 million due to expected increased feed demand as the country continues to recover from the 1997 outbreak of foot and mouth disease.
  
• Colombia corn up 100,000 tons to 1.9 million because of higher expected feed demand.
  
• Mexico sorghum up 300,000 tons to 4.3 million tons because of higher expected demand by feedmillers in lieu of corn.
  
• Poland corn up 200,000 tons to 500,000 tons due to an anticipated drought reduced crops.

1999/00 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• U.S. corn exports up 500,000 tons to 46.5 million due to a continuing strong sales pace and higher expected demand.
  
• Argentina corn up 300,000 tons to 8.8 million because of a larger expected crop.
  
• South Africa corn down 300,000 tons to 1.2 million due to smaller than expected exports to date.

Selected Importers

• Taiwan corn imports up 300,000 tons to 4.0 million due to higher than expected demand.

• Mexico sorghum up 300,000 tons to 4.3 million because of continuing strong demand by feedmillers.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003