SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND
World coarse grain trade for
2000/01 is projected up 2.7 million tons to 100.7 million, the
highest level since 1998/90. Higher world production is expected
as bigger crops in Argentina, Brazil, the EU and the United
States more than offset reductions in China and South Africa.
Growth in global consumption is expected to continue strong but
will slightly trail consumption. Carryout stocks are forecast to
rise largely due to a bigger U.S. crop.
Global corn trade is forecast up
1.3 million tons, to the highest level since 1994/95. US exports
are projected to increase 3 million tons over 1999/00 levels
largely the result of reduced competition from China. World
barley trade is forecast to remain robust as Mid Eastern and
North African demand continues strong. Although Australia and
Canada are forecast to increase exports, the EU will remain the
largest supplier and is currently forecast to export a record
10.5 million tons.
- United States corn
exports up 1 million tons to 49.5 million due to
- Australia barley
exports up 200,000 to 3.6 million because of continuing
strong global demand and a bigger expected crop.
- United States sorghum
exports up 300,000 tons due to higher expected Mexican
- EU rye up 200,000
tons to 1.7 million fueled by higher expected East
European demand resulting from anticipated drought
- Taiwan corn up
400,000 tons to 5.1 million due to expected increased
feed demand as the country continues to recover from the
1997 outbreak of foot and mouth disease.
- Colombia corn up
100,000 tons to 1.9 million because of higher expected
- Mexico sorghum up
300,000 tons to 4.3 million tons because of higher
expected demand by feedmillers in lieu of corn.
- Poland corn up
200,000 tons to 500,000 tons due to an anticipated
drought reduced crops.
- U.S. corn exports up
500,000 tons to 46.5 million due to a continuing strong
sales pace and higher expected demand.
- Argentina corn up
300,000 tons to 8.8 million because of a larger expected
- South Africa corn
down 300,000 tons to 1.2 million due to smaller than
expected exports to date.
- Taiwan corn imports
up 300,000 tons to 4.0 million due to higher than
- Mexico sorghum up
300,000 tons to 4.3 million because of continuing strong
demand by feedmillers.
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003