WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World coarse grain trade is projected up nearly two million tons to 99.3 million tons in 2000/01. Higher world production is expected as bigger crops in Argentina, Brazil, the EU and the United States more than offset smaller crops in China and South Africa. Global production is expected to narrowly outpace consumption, so carryout stocks are forecast to rise slightly and continue to put downward pressure on prices.
Global corn trade is forecast up slightly in 2000/01 as production is forecast to exceed consumption for the third straight year. U.S. exports will continue to face strong competition from Argentina and China. Although imports are forecast down in Asia, they are expected to grow more than 10 percent in the Middle East and North Africa. Latin Americas imports are also increasing, driven almost entirely by Mexico.
Barley trade is forecast to rise by nearly 1.5 million tons or 8 percent as a second year of drought in the Middle East and North Africa cut production. To meet this stronger demand, the EU is forecast to export a record 10.5 million tons, while Australian and Canadian exports are also up with larger crops.
U.S. and China corn and EU barley are forecast to comprise nearly two-thirds of world coarse grain stocks. With the U.S. corn crop expected to be larger than last year and consumption showing small growth, stocks will increase. Chinas stocks are down because of reduced production and relatively large exports. The EU is expected to have another large barley harvest, but stocks will be a function of continued displacement by cheaper feed-quality wheat and exports.
United States corn production is forecast up by nearly 8 million tons and exports of corn are forecast up 2.5 million tons to 48.5 million tons. Carryout stocks are therefore projected to increase by 5.1 million tons from 1999/2000 and as a result, U.S. prices are expected lower. Sorghum exports are expected to remain strong as Mexican imports are forecast to continue at the pace of a year ago.
China corn exports are forecast down 2 million tons to 6 million due to lower world prices.
Argentina corn exports are up 800,000 tons to 9.5 million tons from 1999/2000 as a near record crop and stagnating domestic utilization is expected to force corn into the export channels.
Lower European Union (EU) prices resulting from the Agenda 2000 reforms and a weak currency could create the conditions necessary for the EU to export barley without subsidies. Consequently, exports are forecast up 1 million tons to a new record 10.5 million tons as demand continues to skyrocket.
Overall Asian import demand is expected to fall slightly in 2000/01. Lower feed needs resulting from the outbreak of foot and mouth disease in South Korea is expected to result in less corn imports. Japan corn imports are expected to drop slightly as feed needs contract in response to expanding imports of meat. Malaysia is expected to import more corn to fuel its expanding domestic poultry industries as it recovers from disease outbreak. Taiwan is expected to have fairly constant consumption and therefore steady import needs. China is expected to import more barley to fuel its rising beer industry.
Middle East and North Africa
Middle East and North African barley imports are forecast up nearly 14 percent from 1999/00 levels as drought continues to reduce grain production. Egypt corn imports are expected to increase 500,000 tons to 4.5 million as the poultry industry expands.
Brazil corn imports are forecast down 200,000 tons to 1.4 million tons as a larger crop is expected. Expanding consumption in the rest of Latin America will be filled almost entirely by production gains.
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