SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World wheat trade in 1999/2000 is estimated at 104.8 million tons, and is revised upwards for a second straight month. U.S. export prospects are helped by firmer world import demand, although they face continued strong competition from Australia, Canada, and the EU, all with big exportable supplies. Global production is down and consumption is up this year, which would normally suggest tightening supplies and the potential for higher prices. However, any upward pressure on prices is mitigated by large stocks, particularly in exporting countries.

Over the past month, U.S. wheat prices have stagnated at near-decade lows. In early April, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged about $110 per ton for nearby shipment, compared to $120 per ton a year ago. World wheat trade is up half a million tons this month, with higher imports by Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines, and the UAE more than offsetting declines in Egypt and Venezuela.

1999/2000 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• Ukraine exports down 200,000 tons to 2.0 million based on a recent sharp drop-off in exports.

• United States exports up 500,000 tons to 29 million to reflect improved sales prospects and expected food aid shipments.

Selected Importers

• Egypt imports down 300,000 tons to 6.0 million due to a lagging import pace.

• Indonesia imports up 400,000 tons to 3.2 million because of stepped-up commercial imports in early 2000 and U.S. donations.

• Pakistan up 200,000 tons to 2.5 million to reflect U.S. donations.

• Philippines up 200,000 tons to 2.5 million because of continued strong purchases, which apparently are for feeding.

• United Arab Emirates up 200,000 tons to 1.2 million due to a record import pace.

• Venezuela down 200,000 tons to 1.1 million due to a slower-than-expected import pace.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003