WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World wheat trade in 1999/2000 is estimated at 104.8 million tons, and is revised upwards for a second straight month. U.S. export prospects are helped by firmer world import demand, although they face continued strong competition from Australia, Canada, and the EU, all with big exportable supplies. Global production is down and consumption is up this year, which would normally suggest tightening supplies and the potential for higher prices. However, any upward pressure on prices is mitigated by large stocks, particularly in exporting countries.
Over the past month, U.S. wheat prices have stagnated at near-decade lows. In early April, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged about $110 per ton for nearby shipment, compared to $120 per ton a year ago. World wheat trade is up half a million tons this month, with higher imports by Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines, and the UAE more than offsetting declines in Egypt and Venezuela.
1999/2000 Trade Changes
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