SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Global rice trade in 2000 is forecast to fall for the second consecutive year. Despite this decline, however, U.S. exports are expected to increase as a upshot of record supplies and lower prices. Global prices will be further pressured by large supplies in nearly all exporting countries. Global production, consumption and ending stocks are all projected to climb to record levels in 1999/2000, largely due to increases in China, the world’s largest producer, although bumper harvests in 1999/2000 are also projected for Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Burma, Bangladesh, India, and the Philippines.

U.S. rice export prices have softened over the past month and remain at near decade lows. Asian prices have followed the same trend as export business was difficult to attract during the first quarter of the year. Little expectation of price strength remains for the balance of the year due to weak international demand and expected bumper harvests in many Asian countries.

2000 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• India exports down 300,000 tons to 1.2 million the lowest level in 6 years despite projected record-high production in 1999/2000, due to smaller expected import demand in Bangladesh and uncompetitive high prices.

• China and Pakistan exports down 150,000 tons each to 2.7 million and 1.9 million tons respectively due to lighter import demand in 2000.

Selected Importers

• Bangladesh imports down 500,000 tons to 400,000, a decline of 2.0 million tons from the 1998 record level due to plentiful supplies.

• Brazil imports down 100,000 tons to 700,000 due to ample domestic supplies.

1999 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• Uruguay exports down 40,000 tons to 685,000 based on year-end annual trade data.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003