SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND
OUTLOOK
World coarse grain trade for
1999/2000 is projected up 1.8 million tons to 97.9 million, the
highest level in ten years. Asian imports have rebounded to
nearly the level reached in the mid-nineties. Global production
is down 18 million tons compared to 1998/99 due mainly to
reductions in the Chinese and U.S. corn crops and barley
shortfalls in the Middle East. Global consumption is up nearly 10
million tons fueled mainly by soaring U.S. domestic consumption
and increasing Asian demand. Ending stocks are down nearly 9
million tons due primarily to a reduction in Chinese and U.S.
corn stocks and EU barley stocks.
Global corn trade is forecast up
1.1 million tons, to the highest level since 1994/95. Increased
exports from China, Argentina, and South Africa are expected to
reduce U.S. exports by 5.4 million tons from 1998/99. World
barley trade is forecast to remain robust as Middle Eastern and
North African demand continues strong. The EU is currently
forecast to export a record 9.5 million tons of barley.
1999/2000 Trade
Changes
Selected Exporters
- United States corn
exports down 1.5 million tons to 46.5 million due to
increased competition.
- China corn up 1
million tons to 9 million because of continuing strong
sales and exports.
- South Africa corn up
400,000 tons to 1.5 million due to increased production.
- EU barley exports up
300,000 to 9.5 million because of continuing strong
global demand.
- United States sorghum
up 300,000 tons to 5.8 million due to increased Mexico
imports.
Selected Importers
- Mexico corn down
400,000 tons to 4.6 million due to a slowdown in the pace
of import licenses.
- Brazil corn up
400,000 tons to 2 million due to a reduced crop and a
strong import pace to date.
- United States barley
imports down 100,000 tons to 600,000 because of a
slowdown in the import pace.
- Russia barley up
250,000 tons to 500,000, supplied primarily from
Kazakstan, because of tight feed grain supplies.
- Mexico sorghum up
400,000 tons to 4 million tons due to an expected
reduction in production.
- Japan sorghum down
300,000 tons to 2 million because of a slowdown in import
pace.
Download the coarse grains tables in:
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Lotus Spreadsheet Format
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003
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